$2.0K
NOV 7, 2026
General Election
Voters choose the office holder.
Track how candidate odds have moved across common market windows.
Total volume
$2.0K
24h volume
$0
source: Kalshi
Recent news is mostly about South Dakota Republican politics, not the House race itself. Dusty Johnson is polling well in the GOP governor primary, and Kristi Noem is being floated as a possible Senate candidate. None of the updates show a direct challenge to the Republican hold on this House seat. The Johnson polling may reinforce his profile in South Dakota GOP politics, but it does not directly change this House market. The Noem Senate speculation adds some uncertainty around the broader Republican field, though the House race remains likely Republican-leaning from the provided news.
U.S. Rep. Dusty Johnson has opened a wider lead in the South Dakota Republican governor race, according to new poll results.
A new poll shows U.S. Rep. Dusty Johnson leads the South Dakota Republican governor race but may face a runoff. Toby Doeden of Aberdeen is second.
Ousted Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem still has time to enter South Dakota’s 2026 Senate race.
Texas Republicans are headed for a brutal Senate runoff. Sen. John Cornyn narrowly leads Attorney General Ken Paxton in the first round.
Some state level Democrats aren’t willing to pave the way for an independent, even if they have a better shot at winning an already-uphill race.
CNN By Priscilla Alvarez, Kristen Holmes, Annie Grayer, Lauren Fox, CNN (CNN) — President Donald Trump said Thursday on social media he was pushing Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem out of her position and would name Oklahoma Sen. Markwayne Mullin to replace her. Trump thanked Noem for her service, saying in his Truth Social post
New nationwide polling data shows the president is underwater in every swing state while his core base remains strong.
Trump frequently brings up the SAVE America Act, which would impose stricter voting requirements. He told NBC News he is "not doing anything" until Congress passes it.
The GOP appears stuck between a rock and a hard place when it comes to the legislation the party has dubbed the “SAVE America Act.”
Trump and Republicans say the SAVE Act will ensure election integrity. Democrats and others say millions would be unfairly prevented from voting.
New updates coming soon
We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.
