Prediction Edge
Democrat
Matt Mahan

Overview

Current roleMayor

PartyDemocratic

Political ideologyModerate Democrat

Age43 years old (Nov 18, 1982)

GenderMale

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LocationCalifornia

BackgroundPolitician

EducationHarvard University — B.A. in Social Studies (2005), magna cum laude

Notable personal detailsMatthew William Mahan is an American politician and tech entrepreneur who has served as the 66th Mayor of San José, California since January 2023. He previously represented San José City Council District 10 after winning election in 2020. He is a Harvard University graduate and has worked in the tech and civic-engagement space, and he has also taught middle school in San José through Teach For America. In 2026 he ran in California’s gubernatorial primary.

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Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

Opposes a proposed one-time wealth tax on California billionaires and cautions it would risk driving high-net-worth individuals and companies out of the state; favors closing tax loopholes (particularly on unrealized capital gains) and improving government efficiency rather than imposing new broad taxes.

Healthcare

Supports expanding behavioral health and mental health treatment capacity, backing state reforms (including SB 43) and additional residential treatment beds; advocates partnerships to scale inpatient and outpatient services for people with severe mental illness and substance use disorders. Has expressed opposition to a proposed one‑time wealth tax to fund healthcare, citing economic risks to the region.

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Immigration & Border

Supports protecting immigrant communities locally while backing enforcement against people who commit serious or violent crimes; favors secure borders alongside creating legal pathways such as work permits or a pathway to citizenship to regularize undocumented residents.

Abortion & Reproductive Rights

The candidate states he is pro‑choice and supports a woman’s reproductive freedom. His campaign site says he supports taxpayer‑funded abortion and he has publicly defended his pro‑choice position against critics.

Climate & Energy

Supports investment in clean energy technologies (renewables and storage), protecting open space, expanding water recycling and urban forestry, and attracting climate and green-energy industries to San José while emphasizing reliable energy for economic growth and cautious regulation around data-center energy needs.

Public Safety & Guns

The candidate emphasizes strengthening and funding police, rejects defunding police, and prioritizes training, deployment, and accountability for law enforcement. There are no clear policy statements on specific gun measures (for example, assault‑weapons bans, universal background checks, red flag laws, or concealed‑carry rules) in the cited campaign materials and news coverage. Available public statements focus on public‑safety and policing approaches rather than explicit positions on firearm regulation.

News

AINews Summary
Last updatedJul 15, 2026

Matt Mahan is in the news because he is running in California’s crowded 2026 governor’s race, with voting closing and the top-two primary deciding who advances. Recent reports say his campaign has lost momentum, with some Silicon Valley support weakening, an outside support committee shutting down, and a $1 million donation being refunded. He has also been attacking rival Xavier Becerra on the trail while emphasizing accountability, homelessness, and housing reform.

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Polls

California Governor primary: 1st place
Polling Average
25%20%15%10%5%0%
5.1%
19.3%
14.5%
13.3%
13.2%
10.7%
9.5%
Matt Mahan
M. Mahan
Steve Hilton
S. Hilton
Tom Steyer
T. Steyer
Chad Bianco
C. Bianco
Xavier Becerra
X. Becerra
Eric Swalwell
E. Swalwell
Katie Porter
K. Porter
Antonio Villaraigosa
A. Villaraigosa
Date (Start - End)SpreadMahanHiltonSteyerBiancoBecerraSwalwellPorterVillaraigosa
Polling Average
Hilton+14.2
5.1%19.3%14.5%13.3%13.2%10.7%9.5%2.8%
SurveyUSAMay 28 - 31
Steyer+14.0
6.0%20.0%20.0%11.0%17.0%7.0%4.0%
Emerson CollegeMay 27 - 28
Becerra+23.5
4.9%22.5%22.6%11.8%28.4%5.2%2.7%
Public Policy PollingMay 27 - 28
Steyer+14.0
7.0%20.0%21.0%14.0%18.0%7.0%2.0%
McLaughlin & AssociatesMay 26 - 28
Steyer+19.0
6.0%25.0%25.0%10.0%19.0%7.0%
Kreate StrategiesMay 27 - 27
Becerra+23.0
4.0%26.0%20.0%9.0%27.0%5.0%1.0%
David Binder ResearchMay 26 - 27
Hilton+23.0
4.0%27.0%22.0%9.0%26.0%8.0%
University of Southern California/California State University Long Beach Center for Urban Politics and Policy/Cal Poly PomonaMay 23 - 26
Becerra+25.0
4.0%23.0%18.0%11.0%29.0%8.0%3.0%
University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental StudiesMay 19 - 24
Becerra+21.0
4.0%21.0%19.0%11.0%25.0%7.0%1.0%
Echelon InsightsMay 18 - 21
Hilton+18.0
7.0%25.0%18.0%12.0%15.0%7.0%1.0%
Global Strategy GroupMay 18 - 21
Hilton+14.0
8.0%22.0%19.0%12.0%19.0%8.0%2.0%
Public Policy Institute of CaliforniaMay 14 - 18
Becerra+16.0
7.0%20.0%15.0%13.0%23.0%12.0%5.0%
EvitarusMay 14 - 16
Hilton+18.0
4.0%22.0%15.0%10.0%21.0%0.0%7.0%1.0%
EvitarusMay 14 - 16
Hilton+18.0
4.0%22.0%15.0%11.0%22.0%6.0%1.0%
David Binder ResearchMay 5 - 11
Hilton+16.0
7.0%23.0%15.0%13.0%22.0%12.0%2.0%
Emerson CollegeMay 9 - 10
Becerra+11.0
9.3%17.7%18.9%12.0%20.3%13.1%5.1%
Kreate StrategiesMay 5 - 9
Hilton+13.0
9.0%22.0%14.0%13.0%20.0%9.0%1.0%
Mellman GroupMay 3 - 6
Becerra+10.0
10.0%20.0%12.0%14.0%20.0%9.0%
Impact ResearchApr 28 - May 3
Becerra+13.0
10.0%23.0%14.0%11.0%23.0%9.0%1.0%
EvitarusApr 30 - May 2
Hilton+11.0
7.0%18.0%12.0%14.0%18.0%1.0%8.0%2.0%
SurveyUSAApr 28 - May 1
Hilton+13.0
7.0%20.0%18.0%12.0%10.0%8.0%5.0%
Gudelunas StrategiesApr 23 - 27
Becerra+18.0
6.0%23.0%15.0%13.0%24.0%0.0%10.0%2.0%
YouGovApr 23 - 27
Hilton+12.0
4.0%16.0%15.0%10.0%13.0%9.0%4.0%
EMC ResearchApr 21 - 26
Becerra+13.0
8.0%20.0%17.0%15.0%21.0%8.0%3.0%
Independent Voter ProjectApr 14 - 20
Becerra+18.8
4.3%19.7%13.9%16.7%23.0%11.4%1.0%
Gudelunas StrategiesApr 14 - 18
Hilton+14.0
6.0%20.0%15.0%14.0%15.0%0.0%13.0%3.0%
Kreate StrategiesApr 12 - 18
Hilton+14.0
4.0%18.0%16.0%14.0%10.0%3.0%8.0%1.0%
Kreate StrategiesApr 12 - 18
Hilton+14.0
4.0%18.0%16.0%14.0%10.0%10.0%1.0%
EvitarusApr 15 - 17
Hilton+11.0
5.0%16.0%13.0%14.0%13.0%1.0%10.0%2.0%
Emerson CollegeApr 14 - 15
Hilton+11.2
5.4%16.6%14.1%14.4%10.4%10.3%2.5%
SurveyUSAApr 8 - 10
Steyer+17.0
4.0%18.0%21.0%8.0%4.0%9.0%8.0%5.0%
David Binder ResearchApr 1 - 6
Hilton+17.0
5.0%22.0%12.0%13.0%4.0%18.0%11.0%2.0%
Gudelunas StrategiesApr 1 - 6
Hilton+17.0
5.0%22.0%12.0%13.0%4.0%18.0%11.0%2.0%
EvitarusMar 31 - Apr 5
Bianco+10.0
4.0%14.0%11.0%14.0%4.0%12.0%7.0%4.0%
Public Policy Institute of CaliforniaMar 26 - Apr 3
Swalwell+13.0
5.0%17.0%14.0%14.0%5.0%18.0%10.0%5.0%
Kreate StrategiesMar 23 - 29
Hilton+15.0
4.0%19.0%13.0%10.0%2.0%13.0%8.0%2.0%
Echelon InsightsMar 12 - 17
Hilton+16.0
4.0%20.0%13.0%14.0%3.0%15.0%10.0%3.0%
EvitarusMar 12 - 17
Hilton+13.0
3.0%16.0%10.0%14.0%3.0%10.0%10.0%3.0%
University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental StudiesMar 9 - 15
Hilton+13.0
4.0%17.0%10.0%16.0%5.0%13.0%13.0%4.0%
Emerson CollegeMar 7 - 9
Swalwell+14.1
3.2%13.3%10.9%11.4%3.0%17.3%8.4%3.2%
University of California Berkeley Jack Citrin Center for Public Opinion Research/TrueDotFeb 25 - Mar 3
Hilton+16.0
3.0%19.0%13.0%11.0%5.0%11.0%11.0%4.0%
Global Strategy GroupFeb 27 - Mar 2
Hilton+17.0
3.0%20.0%16.0%15.0%5.0%11.0%13.0%2.0%
Independent Voter ProjectFeb 13 - 20
Bianco+21.2
2.1%14.9%8.0%23.3%3.4%17.9%12.4%2.8%
Emerson CollegeFeb 13 - 14
Hilton+13.7
3.4%17.1%8.8%13.5%3.5%14.1%9.8%2.8%
Public Policy Institute of CaliforniaFeb 3 - 11
Hilton+11.0
3.0%14.0%10.0%12.0%5.0%11.0%13.0%5.0%
Tavern ResearchFeb 2 - 5
Bianco+18.0
2.0%12.0%9.0%20.0%6.0%10.0%9.0%3.0%
EMC ResearchJan 29 - Feb 4
Bianco+16.0
5.0%17.0%9.0%21.0%6.0%18.0%12.0%3.0%
Global Strategy GroupJan 29 - Feb 3
Bianco+15.0
3.0%18.0%10.0%18.0%4.0%14.0%12.0%3.0%
J. Wallin Opinion ResearchJan 29 - Feb 1
Hilton+10.0
4.0%14.0%12.0%11.0%6.0%9.0%8.0%7.0%
RBI Strategies & ResearchJan 25 - 29
Hilton+13.0
3.0%16.0%8.0%15.0%14.0%13.0%
Public Policy PollingJan 20 - 21
Bianco+13.0
5.0%17.0%8.0%18.0%6.0%11.0%14.0%2.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Endorsements

California Governor primary: 1st place

Endorsers of Matt Mahan for California Governor primary: 1st place

California YIMBY

Elected official

California YIMBY backed Matt Mahan in California's governor race.

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We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

  • Fundraising