Prediction Edge
Republican
Michele Tafoya

Michele Tafoya

Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in Minnesota

Live Odds

Current prediction-market probability for the candidate, updated as market prices change.

Michele Tafoya is trading at 11% to win the Minnesota Senate winner? on prediction markets.

Candidate Overview

Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.

Current roleSports broadcaster

PartyRepublican

Political ideologyConservative Republican

Age61 years old (Dec 17, 1964)

GenderFemale

Show more

LocationMinnesota

BackgroundSports broadcaster

EducationUniversity of California, Berkeley (B.A., mass communications)

Notable personal detailsMichele Joan Tafoya is an American reporter and former sports broadcaster known for her sideline reporting work across major networks including CBS, ESPN, and NBC. She earned a B.A. from the University of California, Berkeley and an M.B.A. from the University of Southern California. After leaving NBC following Super Bowl LVI in February 2022, she shifted into political and cultural commentary and later became a Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in Minnesota.

SourcesShow

Political Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

The candidate emphasizes protecting taxpayers, reducing burdens on businesses, lowering costs for families, and combating government fraud and waste. She supports policies to make businesses thrive by reducing taxes and regulation and says families are struggling with costs such as rent, mortgages, and energy.

Healthcare

The candidate has publicly criticized the Affordable Care Act as ineffective and has posted commentary opposing ACA policies and subsidies. Her campaign and public messaging emphasize rooting out Medicaid fraud and lowering costs rather than expanding government health programs. She has also described herself as a pro‑choice Republican on abortion policy.

Show more

Immigration & Border

Supports stronger immigration enforcement and federal law‑enforcement involvement in Minnesota; says she will deport dangerous criminals and stand with law enforcement in response to recent federal immigration operations. Her campaign launch video and statements emphasize public safety and backing federal agents during immigration enforcement actions.

Abortion & Reproductive Rights

The candidate identifies as a pro‑choice Republican who supports abortion access while indicating some limits on very late‑term abortion. She says abortion policy should largely be handled at the state level following Dobbs.

Latest Candidate Updates

Recent changes in prediction-market odds, polling and campaign status.

Minnesota Senate winner?

12h

Michele Tafoya has raised $5,337,941.77 this cycle, but Peggy Flanagan holds the lead in the latest odds for the Minnesota Senate race.

12%

Latest News

AINews Summary
Last updatedAug 13, 2026

Michele Tafoya has won the Minnesota Republican Senate primary and will face Democratic Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan in the general election for the open U.S. Senate seat. She defeated a crowded GOP field and emerged with just over half the vote. Tafoya is now pitching herself as a candidate who can appeal beyond Republicans, including to moderates and some Democrats. Earlier coverage also noted strong fundraising and outside support for her campaign.

en.wikipedia.org+54

Latest Polls

Recent polling results and the candidate's current average in the race.

Michele Tafoya currently averages 42.6%, ranking second in this race, 5.4 points behind the next candidate.

Polling average: 42.6%Position: secondMargin: -5.4 ptsLatest poll: 41.0% (Aug 13 - 17)Polls included: 4

Average recalculated from polls through Aug 13 - 17.

Polling Average
60%50%40%30%20%10%0%
42.6%
48.0%
Michele Tafoya
M. Tafoya
Peggy Flanagan
P. Flanagan
Date (Start - End)SpreadTafoyaFlanagan
Polling Average
Flanagan+5.4
42.6%48.0%
SurveyUSAAug 13 - 17
Flanagan+5.0
41.0%46.0%
Impact ResearchMay 26 - 28
Flanagan+7.0
44.0%51.0%
Emerson CollegeFeb 6 - 8
Flanagan+6.5
40.6%47.1%
Impact ResearchJul 8 - 11
Flanagan+3.0
45.0%48.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Endorsements

4
Minnesota Republican Senate nominee?

Campaign Fundraising

Latest report: Cycle 2026

Campaign finance totals from the latest available reporting period.

Total raisedCash on hand
$5.3M
$4.0M
$2.7M
$1.3M
$0

2026

Latest
Year
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate

Cycle 2026

$5.3M
$1.4M
$4.0M
$208.7K

Source: FEC