Prediction Edge

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Minnesota Senate winner?

The selected contract has a verified final result.

  • Michele Tafoya

    Will Republicans win the Senate race in Minnesota?

    Selected market

    Final: No

    Settled Nov 4, 2026, 5:42 AM UTC

Republican
Michele Tafoya

Michele Tafoya

Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in Minnesota

Saved odds — Minnesota Senate winner?

Prediction-market probability saved with this edition; no automatic updates.

9.7%chance to win

$8.3MNOV 7, 2026

Candidate Overview

Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.

Current roleSports broadcaster

PartyRepublican

Political ideologyConservative Republican

Age61 years old (Dec 17, 1964)

GenderFemale

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LocationMinnesota

BackgroundSports broadcaster

EducationUniversity of California, Berkeley (B.A., mass communications)

Notable personal detailsMichele Joan Tafoya is an American reporter and former sports broadcaster known for her sideline reporting work across major networks including CBS, ESPN, and NBC. She earned a B.A. from the University of California, Berkeley and an M.B.A. from the University of Southern California. After leaving NBC following Super Bowl LVI in February 2022, she shifted into political and cultural commentary and later became a Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in Minnesota.

SourcesShow

Political Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

The candidate emphasizes protecting taxpayers, reducing burdens on businesses, lowering costs for families, and combating government fraud and waste. She supports policies to make businesses thrive by reducing taxes and regulation and says families are struggling with costs such as rent, mortgages, and energy.

Healthcare

The candidate has publicly criticized the Affordable Care Act as ineffective and has posted commentary opposing ACA policies and subsidies. Her campaign and public messaging emphasize rooting out Medicaid fraud and lowering costs rather than expanding government health programs. She has also described herself as a pro‑choice Republican on abortion policy.

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Immigration & Border

Supports stronger immigration enforcement and federal law‑enforcement involvement in Minnesota; says she will deport dangerous criminals and stand with law enforcement in response to recent federal immigration operations. Her campaign launch video and statements emphasize public safety and backing federal agents during immigration enforcement actions.

Abortion & Reproductive Rights

The candidate identifies as a pro‑choice Republican who supports abortion access while indicating some limits on very late‑term abortion. She says abortion policy should largely be handled at the state level following Dobbs.

Latest News

AINews Summary
Last updatedAug 13, 2026

Michele Tafoya has won the Minnesota Republican Senate primary and will face Democratic Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan in the general election for the open U.S. Senate seat. She defeated a crowded GOP field and emerged with just over half the vote. Tafoya is now pitching herself as a candidate who can appeal beyond Republicans, including to moderates and some Democrats. Earlier coverage also noted strong fundraising and outside support for her campaign.

en.wikipedia.org+57

Latest Polls

Minnesota Senate winner?

Recent polling results and the candidate's current average in the race.

Michele Tafoya currently averages 42.9%, ranking second in this race, 4.8 points behind the next candidate.

Polling average: 42.9%Position: secondMargin: -4.8 ptsLatest poll: 45.7% (Oct 28 - Nov 1)Polls included: 26

Average recalculated from polls through Oct 28 - Nov 1.

Polling Average
60%50%40%30%20%10%0%
42.9%
47.6%
Michele Tafoya
M. Tafoya
Peggy Flanagan
P. Flanagan
Date (Start - End)SpreadTafoyaFlanagan
Polling Average
Flanagan+4.8
42.9%47.6%
AtlasIntelOct 28 - Nov 1
Flanagan+2.4
45.7%48.1%
Research Co.Oct 30 - Nov 1
Flanagan+5.0
43.0%48.0%
Survey 160Oct 27 - Nov 1
Flanagan+9.0
43.0%52.0%
Survey 160Oct 27 - Nov 1
Flanagan+10.0
42.0%52.0%
InsiderAdvantageOct 29 - 30
Flanagan+2.9
46.4%49.3%
SurveyUSAOct 24 - 28
Flanagan+7.0
41.0%48.0%
The New York Times/Siena UniversityOct 19 - 26
Flanagan+14.0
40.0%54.0%
Victory InsightsOct 21 - 22
Flanagan+3.4
44.4%47.8%
Trafalgar GroupOct 13 - 15
Flanagan+3.5
44.6%48.1%
SurveyUSAOct 8 - 12
Flanagan+3.0
42.0%45.0%
Mason-Dixon Polling & StrategyOct 5 - 7
Flanagan+4.0
43.0%47.0%
Morning ConsultOct 2 - 7
Flanagan+4.0
41.0%45.0%
GQROct 1 - 4
Flanagan+9.0
44.0%53.0%
GQROct 1 - 4
Flanagan+8.0
42.0%50.0%
Big Data PollSep 29 - 30
Flanagan+2.2
43.6%45.8%
InsiderAdvantageSep 28 - 29
Flanagan+1.0
45.0%46.0%
co/efficientSep 14 - 15
Flanagan+1.0
42.0%43.0%
SurveyUSASep 9 - 14
Flanagan+0.0
42.0%42.0%
Quantus InsightsSep 8 - 10
Flanagan+3.8
44.4%48.2%
TIPP InsightsAug 31 - Sep 2
Flanagan+2.0
38.0%40.0%
TIPP InsightsAug 31 - Sep 2
Flanagan+2.0
42.0%44.0%
Deep Root AnalyticsAug 17 - 18
Flanagan+5.0
45.0%50.0%
SurveyUSAAug 13 - 17
Flanagan+5.0
41.0%46.0%
Impact ResearchMay 26 - 28
Flanagan+7.0
44.0%51.0%
Emerson CollegeFeb 6 - 8
Flanagan+6.5
40.6%47.1%
Impact ResearchJul 8 - 11
Flanagan+3.0
45.0%48.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Campaign Fundraising

Latest report: Cycle 2026

Campaign finance totals from the latest available reporting period.

Total raisedCash on hand
$5.3M
$4.0M
$2.7M
$1.3M
$0

2026

Latest
Year
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate

Cycle 2026

$5.3M
$1.4M
$4.0M
$208.7K

Source: FEC

Not available in this saved edition

These sections were unavailable when this edition was saved. No automatic updates.

  • Endorsements