Prediction Edge
Republican
Nicole Lee Ethington

Nicole Lee Ethington

Republican candidate for U.S. House in Kentucky

Live Odds — KY-04 Republican Primary Winner

Current prediction-market probability for the candidate, updated as market prices change.

0.1%chance to win

$9.3MMAY 26, 2026

Candidate Overview

Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.

Current roleRegistered nurse

PartyRepublican

Political ideologyConservative Republican

LocationKentucky

BackgroundRegistered nurse

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EducationStudied criminal justice

Notable personal detailsNicole Lee (“Niki Lee”) Ethington is a Republican candidate for the U.S. House in Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District. She has described her professional background as a registered nurse and a former Probation and Parole Officer with the Kentucky Department of Corrections. Her campaign materials also describe coursework/study in criminal justice, homeland security, and human services.

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Political Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

Supports tax relief and cutting/lowering taxes, prioritizes fiscal responsibility and reduced wasteful government spending, and backed a federal budget bill that she says eliminated taxes on tips, overtime pay, and Social Security. Advocates for policies to protect American workers while reducing tax burdens.

Healthcare

Supports making healthcare more affordable and accessible while opposing government mandates or overreach; emphasizes protections for healthcare workers (safe nurse–patient ratios, ending workplace violence) and prioritizes access for seniors and vulnerable populations. Positions focus on market-compatible accessibility and worker protections rather than endorsement of single-payer or large expansions of government-run coverage.

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Immigration & Border

Supports securing the border and stronger immigration laws prioritizing national security; emphasizes enforcement to stop fentanyl and human trafficking and frames immigration policy within an "America First" agenda. Advocates for strong border enforcement and law-and-order approaches rather than expanded legal pathways or asylum protections.

Public Safety & Guns

Supports the Second Amendment and the right of law-abiding citizens to responsibly own firearms with limited government interference; identifies as a gun owner and lists an NRA endorsement. Emphasizes law-and-order experience and public safety in policy priorities.

Latest Polls

KY-04 Republican Primary Winner

Recent polling results and the candidate's current average in the race.

Kaplan Strategies
40%30%20%10%0%
31%
19%
Nicole Lee Ethington
N. Ethington
Thomas Massie
T. Massie
Date (Start - End)SpreadEthingtonMassie
Kaplan StrategiesJun 23 - 24
Ethington+12.0
31.0%19.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Endorsements

2
KY-04 Republican Primary Winner

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

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