Prediction Edge

Saved Kalshi settlement results

These are market contract results, not election calls or vote totals. News, polls, prices and charts remain as captured.

Observation saved Nov 4, 2026, 11:35 AM UTC. No automatic updates.

AL-02 House winner?

The selected contract has a verified final result.

  • Rhett Marques

    Will Republican win the House race for AL-02?

    Selected market

    Final: No

    Settled Nov 4, 2026, 4:37 AM UTC

Republican
Rhett Marques

Rhett Marques

Republican candidate for U.S. House in Alabama

Saved odds — AL-02 House winner?

Prediction-market probability saved with this edition; no automatic updates.

48%chance to win

$534.0KNOV 7, 2026

Candidate Overview

Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.

Current roleState Representative

PartyRepublican

Political ideologyTrump-aligned Republican

Age53 years old (Dec 3, 1972)

GenderMale

Show more

LocationAlabama

BackgroundBusinessman

EducationUniversity of Alabama — B.S., Marketing (1994)

Notable personal detailsRhett Marques is an American politician and businessman who has served as a Republican member of the Alabama House of Representatives (District 91) since 2018. He is a University of Alabama graduate and has worked as a small business owner in the automotive services industry. He has run for U.S. House in Alabama, including campaigns connected to the 2026 cycle amid redistricting-related special election activity.

SourcesShow

Political Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

Supports cutting state taxes (including reductions to the grocery sales tax and elimination of sales tax on diapers and baby supplies) and has promoted tax relief packages for seniors; positions emphasize tax cuts and economic relief for families and small businesses and a commitment to advance President Trump’s pro-tax-cut agenda in Congress.

Healthcare

Supports conservative health policies focused on limiting taxpayer funding for abortion providers and advancing pro-life measures; emphasizes investments in rural healthcare infrastructure and broadband to support access. No campaign materials or voting record indicate support for single-payer or large public expansions of coverage.

Show more

Immigration & Border

Supports strong enforcement and border security measures, including detaining and deporting unauthorized migrants, opposing ‘‘catch and release,’’ and keeping criminal undocumented immigrants out of communities. Frames current immigration flows as a threat to sovereignty, wages, and public safety and endorses continuing expanded enforcement funding and policies.

Abortion & Reproductive Rights

The candidate describes himself as unapologetically pro-life, says he voted for what he calls the strongest pro-life law in the country, and supports blocking federal funding for abortion providers and Planned Parenthood. He pledges to oppose taxpayer funding for abortions and to promote adoption reform and protections for unborn life.

Climate & Energy

The candidate emphasizes responsible conservation of natural resources while prioritizing coastal and agricultural economic interests and support for industries like commercial fishing and manufacturing. The campaign highlights making life affordable and backing pro-business, pro-energy industry policies; the candidate has accepted endorsements from petroleum and convenience marketers. The overall emphasis is on supporting energy-related businesses and economic development rather than aggressive emissions mandates or Green New Deal–style policies.

Public Safety & Guns

The candidate expresses firm support for the Second Amendment, opposes efforts to weaken it, and endorses expanded gun rights including constitutional carry and statewide reciprocity while emphasizing support for law enforcement and cracking down on violent offenders.

Latest Candidate Updates

Recent changes in prediction-market odds, polling and campaign status.

AL-02 House winner?

9h

Shomari Figures has moved into a virtual tie with Rhett Marques, and fresh reporting shows forecasters shifting the race toward Democrats, making the district’s final stretch more trader-relevant than a routine campaign update.

48%2%

Latest News

AINews Summary
Last updatedAug 12, 2026

Rhett Marques has won the Republican primary in Alabama’s newly drawn 2nd Congressional District, according to the Associated Press. He was backed by Donald Trump, and the new map is expected to make the district more favorable to Republicans. The race is part of Alabama’s redistricting-driven special elections ahead of the 2026 midterms.

fec.gov+46

Latest Polls

Recent polling results and the candidate's current average in the race.

Impact Research
50%40%30%20%10%0%
45%
Rhett Marques
R. Marques
Date (Start - End)SpreadShare
Impact ResearchJun 25, 2026
–45.0%
Peak InsightsJun 9, 2026
–30.0%
PI PollingApr 22, 2026
–22.0%
PI PollingApr 2, 2026
–19.0%
The Alabama PollMar 8, 2026
–19.0%
AM Research GroupFeb 2, 2026
–7.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Campaign Fundraising

Latest report: Cycle 2026

Campaign finance totals from the latest available reporting period.

Total raisedCash on hand
$1.3M
$988.9K
$659.3K
$329.6K
$0

2026

Latest
Year
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate

Cycle 2026

$1.3M
$187.7K
$1.1M
$59.5K

Source: FEC

Not available in this saved edition

These sections were unavailable when this edition was saved. No automatic updates.

  • Endorsements