Prediction Edge
Republican
Steve Rance

Steve Rance

Republican candidate for U.S. House in Florida

Live Odds — FL-09 Republican nominee?

Current prediction-market probability for the candidate, updated as market prices change.

0%chance to win

$180.4KAUG 25, 2026

Candidate Overview

Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.

Current rolePastor

PartyRepublican

Political ideologyTrump-aligned Republican

LocationFlorida

BackgroundPastor

Show more

Notable personal detailsHoward Steven Rance (commonly known as Steve Rance) is a Republican candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives in Florida’s 9th Congressional District in the 2026 election cycle. He has described himself publicly as a U.S. Air Force veteran and a pastor. He has a principal campaign committee registered with the FEC as “Rance for Congress.”

SourcesShow

Political Positions

LiberalConservative

Immigration & Border

Supports stronger border enforcement including construction of a border wall and measures to stop illegal immigration, trafficking, and cross-border criminal activity. Prioritizes securing the border as part of an "America First" agenda.

Public Safety & Guns

Supports defending Second Amendment rights and emphasizes law-and-order policies including working with prosecutors to ensure accountability and stronger school resource officer programs. Prioritizes cracking down on drug trafficking, repeat offenders, and gang activity while supporting public-safety measures that align with constitutional protections.

Latest News

AINews Summary
Last updatedJul 30, 2026

Steve Rance is running in the Republican primary for Florida’s 9th Congressional District. The race is drawing attention because the winner will challenge incumbent Democrat Darren Soto in the general election. Coverage of the contest says candidates are focusing on affordability, housing, taxes, utilities, education, immigration, and environmental issues.

fec.gov+42

Latest Polls

FL-09 Republican nominee?

Recent polling results and the candidate's current average in the race.

Victory Insights
20%15%10%5%0%
14.2%
13.8%
13.8%
11.6%
Steve Rance
S. Rance
Jorge Martinez
J. Martinez
Thomas Chalifoux
T. Chalifoux
Ben Butler
B. Butler
Dan Green
D. Green
Justin Story
J. Story
Marcus Carter
M. Carter
Date (Start - End)SpreadRanceMartinezButlerChalifouxGreenStoryCarter
Victory InsightsAug 4 - 6
Martinez+12.8
1.4%14.2%13.8%13.8%11.6%2.5%1.8%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Campaign Fundraising

Latest report: Cycle 2026

Campaign finance totals from the latest available reporting period.

Total raisedCash on hand
$152.8K
$114.6K
$76.4K
$38.2K
$0

2026

Latest
Year
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate

Cycle 2026

$152.8K
$7.8K
$145.0K
$7.6K

Source: FEC

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

  • Endorsements