Prediction Edge
Independent
Todd Achilles

Todd Achilles

Independent candidate for U.S. Senate in Idaho

Live Odds

Current prediction-market probability for the candidate, updated as market prices change.

Todd Achilles is trading at 8% to win the Idaho Senate winner? on prediction markets.

Candidate Overview

Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.

Current roleFormer State Representative

PartyIndependent

Political ideologyCentrist Independent

GenderMale

LocationIdaho

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BackgroundPolitician

EducationClaremont McKenna College (BA)

Notable personal detailsTheodore B. "Todd" Achilles is an American politician and former Idaho state representative who served Idaho House District 16B from February 17, 2024 to July 1, 2025. He is an Independent candidate for the U.S. Senate in Idaho in 2026. Achilles has served on active duty in the U.S. Army and has worked in the technology sector; he has also taught public policy.

SourcesShow

Political Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

Supports reducing taxes for middle-class families and small businesses while imposing taxes on corporate share buybacks and reforms to boost wages and worker mobility; favors policies intended to shift corporate priorities toward workers rather than investors. Advocates shrinking reliance on large government safety-net programs by increasing wages and curbing corporate practices seen as extracting value from workers.

Healthcare

The candidate emphasizes improving affordability and supports a well-funded, efficient Department of Veterans Affairs that delivers timely healthcare and benefits to veterans. Public materials discuss healthcare as an affordability problem but do not endorse a specific federal reform such as Medicare for All, a public option, or full market-based repeal.

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Immigration & Border

Supports securing the border and stopping the flow of undocumented immigrants while emphasizing fully equipping and staffing Customs & Border Protection and lawful, ethical operations. In state-legislature comments he opposed Texas-style state immigration enforcement laws as unconstitutional under the Supremacy Clause but framed immigration as a problem that undermines wages and law.

Abortion & Reproductive Rights

The candidate supports restoring safe and private access to reproductive healthcare in Idaho and says women should make their own health care decisions in consultation with family and doctors rather than the government.

Public Safety & Guns

Supports and will defend the Second Amendment and the right of law-abiding citizens to bear arms while promoting responsible gun ownership, training, safe storage, and expanded access to crisis mental health services. Does not indicate support for broad new firearm bans or red flag laws on the campaign platform pages reviewed.

Latest News

AINews Summary
Last updatedAug 4, 2026

Todd Achilles is now one of the main candidates in Idaho’s 2026 Senate race after Democrat David Roth withdrew, leaving Achilles to challenge Republican Sen. Jim Risch one-on-one. Achilles, backed by the Forward Party, says he will keep campaigning, and recent reporting suggests the matchup could be more competitive for him than a three-way race. Even so, Risch still has a major fundraising advantage in a heavily Republican state.

legislature.idaho.gov+39

Latest Polls

Idaho Senate winner?

Recent polling results and the candidate's current average in the race.

Todd Achilles currently averages 10.0%, ranking second in this race, 5.3 points behind the next candidate.

Polling average: 10.0%Position: secondMargin: -5.3 ptsLatest poll: 7.0% (Jun 6 - 7)Polls included: 3

Average recalculated from polls through Jun 6 - 7.

Polling Average
20%15%10%5%0%
10%
15.3%
Todd Achilles
T. Achilles
David Roth
D. Roth
Date (Start - End)SpreadAchillesRoth
Polling Average
Roth+5.3
10.0%15.3%
Peak InsightsJun 6 - 7
Roth+8.0
7.0%15.0%
The Bullfinch GroupMay 29 - Jun 1
Achilles+3.0
18.0%15.0%
Change ResearchJul 15 - 17
Roth+11.0
5.0%16.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Endorsements

Idaho Senate winner?

Endorsers of Todd Achilles for Idaho Senate winner?

Veterans for Idaho Voters

Public endorsement

Veterans for Idaho Voters endorsed Todd Achilles for U.S. Senate in Idaho.

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Forward Party

Public figure

Forward Party endorsed Todd Achilles for U.S. Senate in Idaho.

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Independent Veterans of America

Public endorsement

Independent Veterans of America endorsed Todd Achilles for the 2026 U.S. Senate race in Idaho.

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Campaign Fundraising

Latest report: Cycle 2026

Campaign finance totals from the latest available reporting period.

Total raisedCash on hand
$692.2K
$519.2K
$346.1K
$173.1K
$0

2026

Latest
Year
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate

Cycle 2026

$692.2K
$194.2K
$506.3K
$28.1K

Source: FEC