Prediction Edge
RepublicanIncumbent
Tom Barrett

Tom Barrett

Incumbent Republican candidate for U.S. House in Michigan

Live Odds — MI-07 House winner?

Current prediction-market probability for the candidate, updated as market prices change.

35%chance to win

$18.7KNOV 7, 2026

Candidate Overview

Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.

Current roleU.S. Representative

PartyRepublican

Political ideologyConservative Republican

Age45 years old (Apr 30, 1981)

GenderMale

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LocationMichigan

BackgroundU.S. Representative

EducationWestern Michigan University — B.A., Political Science (2007)

Notable personal detailsThomas More Barrett is a U.S. Representative from Michigan’s 7th Congressional District, first elected in 2024 and serving since January 3, 2025. A Republican, he previously served in the Michigan House of Representatives (2015–2019) and Michigan Senate (2019–2023). He served in the U.S. Army and Michigan Army National Guard (2000/2001–2022) and later worked as an analyst for the Michigan Department of the Treasury. He earned a B.A. in political science from Western Michigan University.

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Political Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

Advocates permanent tax cuts and pro-growth tax policies including making the 2017 tax cuts permanent, lowering taxes for middle-class workers (including eliminating taxes on tips and some overtime), expanding the Child Tax Credit, and reversing certain Biden-era energy and regulatory policies to boost economic growth. Supported congressional legislation framed as large tax relief for working families and businesses and backed GOP budget measures that prioritize tax reductions and spending restraint.

Healthcare

Opposes expanding Affordable Care Act premium tax credits and has voted against measures to extend those subsidies; has supported Republican fiscal measures critics say reduce Medicaid funding. Positions emphasize reforming the ACA and addressing affordability through changes to current law rather than expanding government coverage programs.

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Immigration & Border

Supports stronger border enforcement including completing the border wall and providing additional tools and resources to DHS, Border Patrol, ICE and Customs; describes the southern border as an "out-of-control mess" and emphasizes preventing illegal entry and removing known threats.

Abortion & Reproductive Rights

The candidate opposes abortion and has advocated protecting life from conception, supporting legal protections for embryos and fetuses and restrictions on abortion with very limited exceptions. He has proposed and backed strict limits on abortion (including support for six- and twelve-week limits in past legislative proposals) and has stated opposition to measures enshrining broad reproductive rights. Recent campaign materials have sometimes downplayed or removed earlier explicit language, but past public statements and legislation indicate a near-total anti-abortion position.

Climate & Energy

The candidate has supported Republican House legislation that repeals recent clean energy tax incentives and voted with his party on measures reducing federal clean energy investments. His official House site lists legislative activity and priorities but does not promote aggressive emissions-reduction or Green New Deal–style proposals.

Public Safety & Guns

The candidate emphasizes crime and public safety priorities and positions himself as a pro-law-enforcement, pro-Second Amendment Republican who opposes broad new gun restrictions. Campaign and advocacy materials opposing him characterize his stance as against stricter gun-safety laws and supportive of expanded carrying rights rather than new federal gun bans or universal background checks.

Latest News

AINews Summary
Last updatedAug 7, 2026

Tom Barrett is in the news because he is set for a competitive 2026 reelection race in Michigan’s 7th Congressional District. Democrat William Lawrence won the primary and will challenge Barrett in a district both parties see as a tossup. Barrett has already attacked Lawrence as too far left, and the seat was one Barrett won in 2024 by 3.7 points.

history.house.gov+51

Latest Polls

MI-07 House winner?

Recent polling results and the candidate's current average in the race.

Polling Average
50%40%30%20%10%0%
44%
Tom Barrett
T. Barrett
Date (Start - End)SpreadBarrett
Polling Average
44.0%
Data for ProgressJun 24 - 30
46.0%
Data for ProgressJun 24 - 30
46.0%
Data for ProgressJun 24 - 30
47.0%
Public Policy PollingApr 24 - 25
44.0%
Public Policy PollingApr 24 - 25
45.0%
Public Policy PollingOct 27 - 28
41.0%
Public Policy PollingOct 27 - 28
39.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Campaign Fundraising

Latest report: Cycle 2026

Campaign finance totals from the latest available reporting period.

Total raisedCash on hand
$6.3M
$4.7M
$3.2M
$1.6M
$0

2022

2024

2026

Latest
Year
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate

Cycle 2022

$2.8M
$5.3K
$2.8M
$117.9K

Cycle 2024

$5.1M
$22.1K
$5.1M
$212.1K

Cycle 2026

$6.3M
$2.9M
$3.5M
$182.0K

Source: FEC

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

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