Polling Average
60%50%40%30%20%10%0%
52%
39.5%
2028 Republican presidential nominee
$56.2M
NOV 7, 2028Primary Election
Party selects its nominee.
Live Odds
Current prediction-market probability for the candidate, updated as market prices change.
Tom Cotton is trading at 0% to win the 2028 Republican presidential nominee on prediction markets.
Candidate Overview
Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.
Current roleU.S. Senator
PartyRepublican
Political ideologyConservative Republican
Age49 years old (May 13, 1977)
GenderMale
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LocationArkansas
BackgroundPolitician
EducationHarvard University (A.B.)
Notable personal detailsThomas Bryant “Tom” Cotton is a Republican U.S. Senator from Arkansas, serving in the Senate since 2015 after one term in the U.S. House of Representatives (2013–2015). He graduated from Harvard University and Harvard Law School, and later served as a U.S. Army infantry officer with deployments to Iraq and Afghanistan, including service with the 101st Airborne and The Old Guard at Arlington National Cemetery. He has worked in law and as a management consultant, and has held Senate leadership roles including Chair of the Senate Republican Conference and Chair of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence (both beginning January 3, 2025).
SourcesShowHide
cotton.senate.goven.wikipedia.orgbritannica.comtomcotton.compt.wikipedia.orgkids.britannica.comnypost.comtheguardian.comhistory.house.govlinktr.eecbsnews.comcnbc.comalanclark.ushallieshoffner.comfacebook.comapnews.comcamdenarknews.combostonherald.comarkansasadvocate.comthenationaldesk.comlegis1.comaxios.comspectrumnews1.comnti.orgfoxnews.comthv11.comfedscoop.comarktimes.com5newsonline.comarkansasonline.comrivervalleydemocratgazette.comwashingtonexaminer.comnbcnews.comkuaf.comreutersconnect.comsenate.govintelligence.senate.govarmed-services.senate.govcongress.govgovinfo.govbioguideretro.congress.gov
Political Positions
LiberalConservative
Economy & Taxes
Tom Cotton has supported major tax-cutting legislation and proposals to reduce or eliminate taxes such as repealing the Affordable Care Act individual mandate and advocating for tax relief for families and businesses; he has also cosponsored measures to repeal the federal estate (death) tax. He has introduced or supported targeted tax measures aimed at foreign entities or elite institutions (for example, legislation to tax large university endowments and to block certain tax credits for Chinese entities) while consistently backing Republican tax-cut priorities.
Healthcare
Opposes the Affordable Care Act and has repeatedly called for its repeal and replacement with market-centered reforms; supports policies such as expanding Health Savings Accounts and reducing federal mandates while sponsoring legislation that protects coverage for pre-existing conditions within a private-market framework.
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Immigration & Border
Supports strict immigration enforcement and border security measures, including construction of a border wall, expedited removals and deportations, reduced legal immigration levels, restrictions on birthright citizenship, and limits on asylum/refugee admissions. Has sponsored legislation to reduce legal immigration, end birthright citizenship for children of unlawful entrants, and tighten penalties and removal for noncitizens who commit crimes.
Abortion & Reproductive Rights
Tom Cotton is a pro-life U.S. Senator who has repeatedly called Roe v. Wade a mistake and supports laws to restrict abortion, including limits on late-term procedures and tighter controls on chemical abortion drugs. He has sponsored and supported pro-life legislation and praised the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision returning abortion policy to the states.
Climate & Energy
Advocates accelerating domestic energy production and innovation, securing critical mineral supply chains, and reducing regulatory barriers to energy projects while emphasizing grid reliability and lower consumer energy costs. Sponsors legislation to streamline energy projects, restrict certain firms from DOE contracts for national-security reasons, and promote domestic lithium and battery supply chains. Positions favor market and security-focused energy policy over aggressive emissions-target or international climate agreements.
Public Safety & Guns
Opposes broad federal gun-control measures like universal background checks and favors tougher criminal penalties and stronger law-enforcement responses to gun crime. Supports expanded concealed-carry rights for certain officials and legislation easing access to some firearm accessories for law-abiding owners. Emphasizes enforcement and sentencing against illegal gun possession rather than new restrictions on lawful gun owners.
Latest News
AINews Summary
Last updatedJul 29, 2026
Tom Cotton has secured the Arkansas Republican Senate primary and is now heading into the general election against Democrat Hallie Shoffner. His campaign says he has nearly $9.8 million in cash on hand, giving him a strong fundraising advantage. Shoffner has been attacking Cotton on labor and affordability issues, including support for unions and the PRO Act.
cotton.senate.gov+40
Articles
AOArkansas Online4 months ago
Cotton campaign reports more funds raised, more disbursements than Shoffner in quarterly reports
Positive
AOArkansas Online5 months ago
EDITORIAL: For Tom Cotton in the GOP primary for U.S. Senate
Positive
AOArkansas Online6 months ago
Democrats Shoffner, Dunbar head to U.S. Senate primary, say they’re focused on Arkansans’ concerns
Positive
SLSalt Lake City Deseret News5 months ago
2026 primary season begins in Texas, North Carolina
Neutral
Latest Polls
Arkansas Senate winner?
Recent polling results and the candidate's current average in the race.
Tom Cotton currently averages 52.0%, ranking first in this race, 12.5 points ahead of the nearest opponent.
Polling average: 52.0%Position: firstMargin: +12.5 ptsLatest poll: 46.0% (Jul 17 - 25)Polls included: 2
Average recalculated from polls through Jul 17 - 25.
Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne
Campaign Fundraising
Latest report: Cycle 2026Campaign finance totals from the latest available reporting period.
Total raisedCash on hand
$9.9M
$7.4M
$5.0M
$2.5M
$0
2024
2026
LatestYear
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate
Cycle 2024
$2.5M
$7.5M
$2.8M
$117.6K
Cycle 2026
$6.2M
$9.9M
$3.8M
$208.5K
Source: FEC
New updates coming soon
We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.
- Endorsements