Prediction Edge
Republican
Travis Grantham

Travis Grantham

Republican candidate for U.S. House in Arizona

Live Odds — AZ-05 Republican nominee?

Current prediction-market probability for the candidate, updated as market prices change.

0.1%chance to win

$280.9KJUL 22, 2026

Candidate Overview

Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.

Current roleFormer State Representative

PartyRepublican

Political ideologyTrump-aligned Republican

Age47 years old (Feb 24, 1979)

GenderMale

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LocationArizona

BackgroundArizona Air National Guard officer and pilot (161st Air Refueling Wing)

EducationArizona State University (BS, Agribusiness)

Notable personal detailsTravis W. Grantham is a Republican politician and Air National Guard officer from Gilbert, Arizona. He served in the Arizona House of Representatives from 2017 to 2025 (District 12 from 2017–2023 and District 14 from 2023–2025) and was Speaker pro tempore from 2021 to 2025. He is an Arizona Air National Guard pilot (161st Air Refueling Wing) and has worked in aviation operations, including leadership roles at International Air Response, Inc. Grantham ran for U.S. House in Arizona’s 5th congressional district and later announced he would leave the race after being called to active duty.

SourcesShow

Political Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

Supports cutting taxes and reducing government spending, promotes policies to grow the private sector and increase productivity, and has backed state-level measures to keep a low flat income tax and limit certain tax incentives. Has sponsored legislation to shorten a property tax break program for large developments.

Healthcare

Supports protecting existing benefits for veterans and seniors (Medicare/VA) while opposing policies that would increase healthcare coverage costs for small businesses. No public advocacy for single‑payer or Medicare for All was found in campaign material; positions emphasize fiscal restraint and protecting current entitlements.

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Immigration & Border

Supports strong border enforcement including physical barriers and National Guard or additional personnel to secure the border, backs finishing the border wall and rapid deportation of people in the country illegally, and has used legislative authority to advance state-level enforcement measures.

Abortion & Reproductive Rights

The candidate identifies as pro‑life and supports restrictions on abortion; his campaign pledges to cut federal funding for Planned Parenthood and to protect unborn life. As a state lawmaker he opposed repealing Arizona’s near‑total 1864 abortion ban and defended language recognizing an “unborn human being” in statute.

Climate & Energy

Travis Grantham has opposed major renewable energy mandates and has low ratings from environmental groups, and his campaign issues emphasize conservative, pro‑business priorities rather than aggressive climate regulation. Public records show he participated in arguments against Arizona’s 2018 Prop 127 renewable mandate and has low Sierra Club and climate‑group scores.

Public Safety & Guns

Supports strong Second Amendment rights and opposes new restrictions on gun ownership; has received endorsement from the National Rifle Association and has voted in favor of laws expanding individuals’ authority to use force against trespassers.

Latest Polls

AZ-05 Republican nominee?

Recent polling results and the candidate's current average in the race.

Travis Grantham currently averages 2.4%, ranking second in this race, 53.0 points behind the next candidate.

Polling average: 2.4%Position: secondMargin: -53.0 ptsLatest poll: 1.4% (Dec 2 - 5)Polls included: 4

Average recalculated from polls through Dec 2 - 5.

Polling Average
80%60%40%20%0%
55.4%
Travis Grantham
T. Grantham
Mark Lamb
M. Lamb
Daniel Keenan
D. Keenan
Date (Start - End)SpreadGranthamLambKeenan
Polling Average
Lamb+53.0
2.4%55.4%0.8%
Victory InsightsDec 2 - 5
Lamb+62.1
1.4%63.5%1.5%
NextGen PollingOct 10 - 12
Lamb+51.0
3.0%54.0%0.0%
NextGen PollingJun 4 - 4
Lamb+52.0
3.0%55.0%1.0%
NextGen PollingFeb 26 - 28
Lamb+47.0
2.0%49.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Campaign Fundraising

Latest report: Cycle 2026

Campaign finance totals from the latest available reporting period.

Total raisedCash on hand
$613.4K
$460.0K
$306.7K
$153.3K
$0

2022

2024

2026

Latest
Year
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate

Cycle 2022

$0.00
$360.00
$15.00

Cycle 2024

$7.5K
$148.99
$360.00
$15.00

Cycle 2026

$613.4K
$54.5K
$559.0K
$31.1K

Source: FEC

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

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