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JUL 22, 2026Primary Election
Party selects its nominee.
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Track how candidate odds have moved across common market windows.
source: Kalshi
Fresh local reporting says new ads are targeting Lamb over misconduct allegations, extending the same negative storyline now trading around a 56% yes price after a sharp intraday reversal. That keeps the nominee market on watch for whether the post-selloff rebound can hold.
Lamb’s contract has jumped back to 74% after the recent selloff, while new coverage keeps the race in focus for traders watching whether the repricing has gone too far.
Lamb’s yes price has dropped to 32%, extending the race’s repricing and keeping the nomination market firmly tilted toward Daniel Keenan.
The biggest development is the reported text-message scandal involving Mark Lamb, which has put him under fresh scrutiny in the GOP primary. Daniel Keenan is using the issue against him, and there are calls for Lamb to drop out. Separate Arizona court rulings show candidate challenges can still affect primary fields. The Lamb scandal likely increases uncertainty around the Republican nomination and could weaken his standing. The effect is mixed overall unless the controversy leads to a withdrawal or formal ballot change.
From ‘America’s Sheriff’ to this former NFL kicker — these GOP candidates face an uphill battle
Democrats consider dozens of seats "in play" this November, and aim to leverage the domestic fallout from Trump's war in Iran.
Newly revealed texts show Arizona Sheriff Mark Lamb allegedly making a racist joke in 2016, suggesting black people are lazy.
Primary ballots can now head to the printer after a series of rulings on nomination challenges officially finalized the list of candidates allowed to appear on the ballot.
Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne
J. FeelyJay FeelyD. KeenanDaniel KeenanM. LambMark LambT. GranthamTravis GranthamSource: FEC
New updates coming soon
We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.
