Prediction Edge
Republican
Toby Doeden

Toby Doeden

Overview

Current roleBusinessman

PartyRepublican

Political ideologyConservative Republican

LocationSouth Dakota

BackgroundBusinessman

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Notable personal detailsToby Doeden is a South Dakota businessman from Aberdeen and a Republican candidate for Governor of South Dakota in 2026. He is associated with Doeden Investment Group and has been active in conservative politics through support of South Dakota-focused policy efforts and candidates. His campaign messaging has emphasized eliminating property taxes and reducing the size and scope of state government. He is married to Elizabeth Doeden and has four children.

SourcesShow

Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

Advocates eliminating property taxes statewide, reducing the size of state government and spending, and preserving/codifying South Dakota sales-tax measures while proposing alternative consumption-based revenue sources to replace property tax revenue.

Immigration & Border

Supports aggressive enforcement measures against undocumented immigrants, including accelerating arrests and deportations; emphasizes combating illegal immigration and border security.

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Climate & Energy

The candidate emphasizes free‑market energy and economic policy, opposes large state subsidies or corporate welfare for energy projects, and has supported political efforts skeptical of major carbon‑capture pipeline projects. Policy statements focus on limiting government incentives and promoting a business climate without special favors rather than endorsing aggressive emissions regulations or expansive clean‑energy mandates.

Public Safety & Guns

The candidate expresses strong support for the Second Amendment and says he will stand up for the right to bear arms. He emphasizes prioritizing public safety by supporting law enforcement and upholding law and order, without proposing new gun-restrictive measures on his issues pages.

News

AINews Summary
Last updatedMay 19, 2026

Toby Doeden is in the South Dakota Republican governor primary, where recent polls put him behind Dusty Johnson but still in the mix with Larry Rhoden and Jon Hansen. The latest polling shows Doeden around 17% to 18%, while Johnson leads and a runoff is possible if no one reaches 35% on June 2. He also took part in a recent GOP debate with the other three candidates, but there were no major breakout moments reported.

tobydoeden.com+39

Polls

South Dakota Republican Governor nominee?
Polling Average
40%30%20%10%0%
14%
30.2%
23.1%
10.7%
Toby Doeden
T. Doeden
Dusty Johnson
D. Johnson
Larry Rhoden
L. Rhoden
J. Hansen
Date (Start - End)SpreadDoedenJohnsonRhodenHansen
Polling Average
Johnson+16.2
14.0%30.2%23.1%10.7%
Mason-Dixon Polling & StrategyApr 7 - 11
Johnson+16.6
17.4%34.0%17.0%17.8%
Emerson CollegeMar 7 - 9
Johnson+10.5
17.6%28.1%16.6%13.6%
Public Opinion StrategiesMar 2 - 5
Johnson+17.0
16.0%33.0%28.0%10.0%
Mason-Dixon Polling & StrategyOct 16 - 20
Johnson+13.0
15.0%28.0%27.0%10.0%
Mason-Dixon Polling & StrategyApr 9 - 11
Johnson+24.0
4.0%28.0%27.0%2.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

  • Endorsements
  • Fundraising