$150.7K
JUN 3, 2026Primary Election
Party selects its nominee.
Track how candidate odds have moved across common market windows.
source: Kalshi
Doeden’s nominee odds rose from 15% a day ago to 27% intraday, keeping him a live second-tier challenger behind Dusty Johnson ahead of the June 2 primary. The move is trader-relevant because it deepens the market’s repricing of the race beyond the frontrunner, even though Johnson still leads.
Doeden’s nominee price has jumped back to 22% while Dusty Johnson slipped to 63%, a fresh repricing in the race’s second tier ahead of the June 2 primary. The move keeps the contest more competitive beneath Johnson and is actionable for traders watching whether the gap keeps narrowing.
Doeden’s nominee price jumped back to 22% while Dusty Johnson eased to 63%, a trader-relevant repricing in the race’s second tier ahead of the June 2 primary. The move keeps the contest’s non-favorite lane live even as Johnson remains the clear front-runner.
Dusty Johnson remains the front-runner in the South Dakota GOP governor primary, but he is still short of the 35% needed to avoid a runoff. A new clash with Larry Rhoden has added tension to the race. Reporting on Noem-era clemency decisions has also become part of the campaign debate. Johnson’s polling lead supports his position, but the 35% threshold keeps runoff risk high. The new dispute and clemency debate add some noise, but the overall market picture still favors Johnson.
Twelve of 19 people granted early release by former Gov. Kristi Noem without board review have since faced new charges.
South Dakota Gov. Larry Rhoden told a gathering of journalists Friday that one of his challengers, U.S. House Rep. Dusty Johnson, attempted to blackmail him into not to entering the gubernatorial race.
With Gov. Janet Mills dropping out, the U.S. Senate race for Maine appears to be down to newcomer Graham Platner and incumbent Sen. Susan Collins.
U.S. Rep. Dusty Johnson has opened a wider lead in the South Dakota Republican governor race, according to new poll results.
The four candidates vying for the Republican nomination for South Dakota governor met for a second time Monday in a relatively well-tempered debate in Sioux Falls.
Voter registration data reveals where Republicans have lost, and gained, ground over the past year with Trump back in office.
A new poll shows U.S. Rep. Dusty Johnson leads the South Dakota Republican governor race but may face a runoff. Toby Doeden of Aberdeen is second.
Ousted Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem still has time to enter South Dakota’s 2026 Senate race.
Texas Republicans are headed for a brutal Senate runoff. Sen. John Cornyn narrowly leads Attorney General Ken Paxton in the first round.
Some state level Democrats aren’t willing to pave the way for an independent, even if they have a better shot at winning an already-uphill race.
Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne
D. JohnsonDusty JohnsonSource: FEC
New updates coming soon
We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.
