Prediction Edge

2026 South Dakota Elections & races

Track South Dakota election odds, candidates, polls, key dates, market volume and race movement across the 2026 races on Prediction Edge.

Overview

South Dakota's 2026 ballot features a governor race headed to the state's first primary runoff: no candidate cleared the 35 percent threshold in the June 2 Republican primary, sending businessman Toby Doeden and incumbent Larry Rhoden, who succeeded Kristi Noem in January 2025, to a July 28 runoff. November 3 also decides Senator Mike Rounds' seat, an open at-large US House seat vacated by Dusty Johnson's run for governor, and an open attorney general contest. South Dakota holds party primaries, with most races settled June 2. This hub connects live market odds with candidate pages, polling context, official dates and market-moving updates.

2026 South Dakota Election Snapshot

Primary Election
Jun 2, 2026
General Election
Nov 3, 2026
Main Statewide Race
Incumbent: Larry Rhoden
Primary System
Closed primary with runoff
Major Offices
Governor, US Senate, US House, Attorney General
Partisan Lean
Strong Republican
Not a core swing state
Early Voting
Absentee in-person voting generally runs from 46 days before Election Day through the day before Election Day.
Prediction Edge Coverage
Odds, polls, candidates, market volume, race pages and alerts

Key South Dakota Races to Watch in 2026

South Dakota Governor Races 2026

South Dakota's first gubernatorial primary runoff is set for July 28: businessman Toby Doeden faces incumbent Larry Rhoden for the Republican nomination after no candidate reached 35 percent on June 2. The winner advances to the November 3 general election.

South Dakota Republican Governor nominee?
$991.0KJul 29, 2026
South Dakota Governor winner?
$5.8KNov 7, 2026
See all Governor races

South Dakota US Senate Races 2026

Republican Mike Rounds, seeking a third term in the Class 2 seat, won the June 2 primary. A second tracked market covers South Dakota's other Senate seat, held by John Thune, which is next on the ballot in 2028.

South Dakota Senate winner?
$7.9KNov 7, 2026
See all US Senate races

South Dakota US House Races 2026

South Dakota's at-large House seat is open after Dusty Johnson left to run for governor. Attorney General Marty Jackley won the June 2 Republican primary and faces Democrat Nicole Gronli on November 3.

See all US House races

South Dakota Attorney General Races 2026

The attorney general's office is open in 2026, with Marty Jackley running for the US House instead. South Dakota parties nominate this office at state conventions rather than primaries; Republicans convene June 27 to pick their nominee.

South Dakota Attorney General winner?
$137Nov 7, 2026
See all Attorney General races

2026 South Dakota Elections Calendar

  1. South Dakota 2026 primary
  2. South Dakota 2026 primary runoff, if required
  3. South Dakota 2026 general election
See full calendar

South Dakota Polls, Odds Movement & Market Signals

See all
Polling Average
40%30%20%10%0%
28.6%
27.1%
18.4%
13.1%
Dusty Johnson
D. Johnson
Larry Rhoden
L. Rhoden
Toby Doeden
T. Doeden
Jon Hansen
J. Hansen
Date (Start - End)SpreadJohnsonRhodenDoedenHansen
Polling Average
Johnson+1.5
28.6%27.1%18.4%13.1%
The Public Sentiment InstituteMay 26 - 27
Rhoden+6.2
26.4%32.6%23.6%14.1%
The Public Sentiment InstituteMay 26 - 27
Rhoden+5.2
27.2%32.4%24.0%13.2%
Meeting Street InsightsMay 18 - 20
Rhoden+1.0
19.0%23.0%22.0%21.0%
Emerson CollegeMay 18 - 19
Doeden+3.0
23.3%19.0%26.3%16.0%
Mason-Dixon Polling & StrategyApr 7 - 11
Johnson+16.2
34.0%17.0%17.4%17.8%
Emerson CollegeMar 7 - 9
Johnson+10.5
28.1%16.6%17.6%13.6%
Public Opinion StrategiesMar 2 - 5
Johnson+5.0
33.0%28.0%16.0%10.0%
Public Opinion StrategiesMar 2 - 5
Rhoden+9.0
39.0%48.0%
Mason-Dixon Polling & StrategyOct 16 - 20
Johnson+1.0
28.0%27.0%15.0%10.0%
Mason-Dixon Polling & StrategyApr 9 - 11
Johnson+1.0
28.0%27.0%4.0%2.0%

2026 South Dakota Elections FAQ

When is the 2026 South Dakota primary election?
The 2026 South Dakota primary election is on Jun 2, 2026.
When is the 2026 South Dakota general election?
The 2026 South Dakota general election is on Nov 3, 2026.
What races are on the ballot in South Dakota in 2026?
South Dakota's November 3, 2026 ballot includes governor, the US Senate seat held by Mike Rounds, the state's at-large US House seat, and statewide executive offices such as attorney general, whose party nominees are chosen at June conventions. State legislative seats are also up. The Republican gubernatorial nominee will be decided in a July 28 runoff between Toby Doeden and Larry Rhoden.
How does South Dakota's primary work?
South Dakota held party primaries on June 2, 2026. Republican primaries were limited to registered Republicans, while the Democratic primary also admitted independent and unaffiliated voters. For governor, US Senate and US House, a candidate needed at least 35 percent to be nominated outright; because no governor candidate reached that mark, the top two advanced to a July 28 runoff.
Why is the 2026 South Dakota Governor race important?
The 2026 race decides who leads South Dakota after an unusual succession: Larry Rhoden became governor in January 2025 when Kristi Noem joined the federal cabinet, and he must now win the state's first primary runoff on July 28 against Toby Doeden to stay on the ballot. The runoff winner faces Democrat Dan Ahlers in the November 3 general election.
Where can I follow South Dakota election odds?
Follow live South Dakota election odds, candidate standings, polls and market-moving updates on this Prediction Edge South Dakota hub.

2026 Statewide Elections and Races