



Track South Dakota election odds, candidates, polls, key dates, market volume and race movement across the 2026 races on Prediction Edge.
South Dakota's 2026 ballot features a governor race headed to the state's first primary runoff: no candidate cleared the 35 percent threshold in the June 2 Republican primary, sending businessman Toby Doeden and incumbent Larry Rhoden, who succeeded Kristi Noem in January 2025, to a July 28 runoff. November 3 also decides Senator Mike Rounds' seat, an open at-large US House seat vacated by Dusty Johnson's run for governor, and an open attorney general contest. South Dakota holds party primaries, with most races settled June 2. This hub connects live market odds with candidate pages, polling context, official dates and market-moving updates.
South Dakota's first gubernatorial primary runoff is set for July 28: businessman Toby Doeden faces incumbent Larry Rhoden for the Republican nomination after no candidate reached 35 percent on June 2. The winner advances to the November 3 general election.
Republican Mike Rounds, seeking a third term in the Class 2 seat, won the June 2 primary. A second tracked market covers South Dakota's other Senate seat, held by John Thune, which is next on the ballot in 2028.
South Dakota's at-large House seat is open after Dusty Johnson left to run for governor. Attorney General Marty Jackley won the June 2 Republican primary and faces Democrat Nicole Gronli on November 3.
The attorney general's office is open in 2026, with Marty Jackley running for the US House instead. South Dakota parties nominate this office at state conventions rather than primaries; Republicans convene June 27 to pick their nominee.




| Date (Start - End) | Spread | Johnson | Rhoden | Doeden | Hansen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polling Average | Johnson+1.5 | 28.6% | 27.1% | 18.4% | 13.1% |
The Public Sentiment InstituteMay 26 - 27 | Rhoden+6.2 | 26.4% | 32.6% | 23.6% | 14.1% |
The Public Sentiment InstituteMay 26 - 27 | Rhoden+5.2 | 27.2% | 32.4% | 24.0% | 13.2% |
Meeting Street InsightsMay 18 - 20 | Rhoden+1.0 | 19.0% | 23.0% | 22.0% | 21.0% |
Emerson CollegeMay 18 - 19 | Doeden+3.0 | 23.3% | 19.0% | 26.3% | 16.0% |
Mason-Dixon Polling & StrategyApr 7 - 11 | Johnson+16.2 | 34.0% | 17.0% | 17.4% | 17.8% |
Emerson CollegeMar 7 - 9 | Johnson+10.5 | 28.1% | 16.6% | 17.6% | 13.6% |
Public Opinion StrategiesMar 2 - 5 | Johnson+5.0 | 33.0% | 28.0% | 16.0% | 10.0% |
Public Opinion StrategiesMar 2 - 5 | Rhoden+9.0 | 39.0% | 48.0% | – | – |
Mason-Dixon Polling & StrategyOct 16 - 20 | Johnson+1.0 | 28.0% | 27.0% | 15.0% | 10.0% |
Mason-Dixon Polling & StrategyApr 9 - 11 | Johnson+1.0 | 28.0% | 27.0% | 4.0% | 2.0% |