Prediction Edge

2026 Tennessee Elections & races

Track Tennessee election odds, candidates, polls, key dates, market volume and race movement across the 2026 races on Prediction Edge.

Overview

Tennessee's 2026 ballot is led by an open race for governor: incumbent Bill Lee is term-limited, and the contest to succeed him has drawn sitting US Senator Marsha Blackburn into the Republican primary. Voters will also decide a US Senate race, where Bill Hagerty seeks a second term, and all nine US House seats under a congressional map redrawn in May 2026. Nominees are chosen in the August 6 open primary, with the general election on November 3. This hub connects live market odds with candidate pages, polling context, official dates and market-moving updates across Tennessee's 2026 races.

2026 Tennessee Election Snapshot

Primary Election
Aug 6, 2026
General Election
Nov 3, 2026
Main Statewide Race
Open seat
Primary System
Open primary
Major Offices
Governor, US Senate, US House
Partisan Lean
Strong Republican
Not a core swing state
Early Voting
Early voting generally runs from the 20th day before Election Day through the fifth day before Election Day.
Prediction Edge Coverage
Odds, polls, candidates, market volume, race pages and alerts

Key Tennessee Races to Watch in 2026

Tennessee Governor Races 2026

Governor Bill Lee is term-limited, leaving the seat open in 2026. US Senator Marsha Blackburn, US Representative John Rose and state Representative Monty Fritts are among the Republicans running; markets track both parties' August 6 nominations and the November winner.

Tennessee Republican Governor nominee?
$34.4KAug 7, 2026
Tennessee Democratic Governor nominee?
$10.7KAug 7, 2026
Tennessee Governor winner?
$7.3KNov 7, 2026
See all Governor races

Tennessee US Senate Races 2026

Republican Bill Hagerty is seeking a second term in 2026 rather than entering the governor's race. Markets track the November winner of this regularly scheduled Senate contest; nominees are set in the August 6 primary.

Tennessee Senate winner?
$31.8KNov 7, 2026
See all US Senate races

Tennessee US House Races 2026

All nine US House seats are on Tennessee's 2026 ballot under a map redrawn in May 2026. Tracked markets cover August 6 nominee contests in the 4th and 5th districts, where incumbents Scott DesJarlais and Andy Ogles seek re-election.

TN-05 Democratic nominee?
$44.3KAug 7, 2026
TN-04 Democratic nominee?
$34.7KAug 7, 2026
TN-04 Republican nominee?
$31.3KAug 7, 2026
See all US House races

2026 Tennessee Elections Calendar

  1. Tennessee 2026 primary
  2. Tennessee 2026 general election
See full calendar

Tennessee Candidates Running in 2026

Explore candidate pages for Tennessee's major 2026 races — odds, polling, fundraising, endorsements and news.

See all candidates

Tennessee Polls, Odds Movement & Market Signals

See all
Polling Average
80%60%40%20%0%
57.0%
12.2%
7.0%
Marsha Blackburn
M. Blackburn
John Rose
J. Rose
Monty Fritts
M. Fritts
Date (Start - End)SpreadBlackburnRoseFritts
Polling Average
Blackburn+44.9
57.0%12.2%7.0%
McLaughlin & AssociatesJun 28 - 30
Blackburn+15.0
44.0%29.0%12.0%
Targoz Market ResearchApr 20 - 27
Blackburn+53.0
63.0%10.0%5.0%
VictoryPhonesMar 18 - 24
Blackburn+42.3
56.1%13.8%10.5%
CygnalMar 16 - 17
Blackburn+51.4
58.1%6.7%4.1%
VictoryPhonesFeb 5 - 8
Blackburn+52.5
60.6%8.1%5.1%
Targoz Market ResearchJan 11 - 18
Blackburn+48.0
57.0%9.0%7.0%
Targoz Market ResearchOct 23 - 26
Blackburn+49.0
58.0%9.0%5.0%
Quantus InsightsAug 5 - 7
Blackburn+42.0
51.5%9.5%
Targoz Market ResearchJul 27 - Aug 1
Blackburn+52.0
66.0%14.0%
Spry StrategiesMar 6 - 10
Blackburn+42.0
59.0%17.0%
Spry StrategiesMar 6 - 10
Blackburn+33.1
40.3%7.2%
Fabrizio, Lee & AssociatesJan 13 - 16
Blackburn+58.0
71.0%13.0%

2026 Tennessee Elections FAQ

When is the 2026 Tennessee primary election?
The 2026 Tennessee primary election is on Aug 6, 2026.
When is the 2026 Tennessee general election?
The 2026 Tennessee general election is on Nov 3, 2026.
What races are on the ballot in Tennessee in 2026?
Tennessee's November 3, 2026 ballot carries the open governor's race, the US Senate seat held by Bill Hagerty, all nine US House districts, odd-numbered state Senate districts and all 99 state House seats, plus some municipal contests. The August 6 election also decides county offices, vacant judicial posts and party state executive committees, alongside the state and federal primaries.
How does Tennessee's primary work?
Tennessee does not register voters by party. In the August 6, 2026 primary, voters choose either the Republican or Democratic ballot at the polls; state law expects them to be bona fide party members or to declare allegiance when voting. Nominations are decided by plurality, so there is no runoff. Early voting runs July 17 through August 1, 2026.
Why is the 2026 Tennessee Governor race important?
Tennessee elects a new governor in 2026 because incumbent Bill Lee cannot seek a third consecutive term. The open seat has reshaped state politics: sitting US Senator Marsha Blackburn is running, US Representative John Rose is contesting the Republican primary, and the winner will lead a state where Democrats last won a statewide race in 2006. Nominees emerge from the August 6 primary.
Where can I follow Tennessee election odds?
Follow live Tennessee election odds, candidate standings, polls and market-moving updates on this Prediction Edge Tennessee hub.

2026 Statewide Elections and Races