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JUN 24, 2026Primary Election
Party selects its nominee.
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Track how candidate odds have moved across common market windows.
source: Kalshi
A centrist Democratic group publicly backed Adrian Boafo in the crowded MD-05 Democratic primary, adding a notable outside-endorsement signal ahead of the June 23 vote. The support reinforces Boafo’s frontrunner narrative and could matter to traders if it helps widen his lead in a race that already has heavy attention and cash on the ballot.
Boafo’s win probability rose to 66% from 62% over the past hour. Recent coverage around the crowded primary and his Hoyer-backed donor network keeps him the clear market favorite, so the move reinforces his frontrunner status rather than a one-off blip.
Boafo’s win probability fell from 62% to 57% over the past day as fresh coverage keeps the crowded open-seat primary in focus. In a safe Democratic district, even modest shifts can matter because the nominee is likely the next member of Congress.
The biggest development is that the seat is open after Steny Hoyer’s retirement, and the Democratic primary is set for June 23. Nancy Pelosi has endorsed Harry Dunn, while Gov. Wes Moore has stayed out of the race. The field remains crowded, so the nomination is still unsettled. Pelosi’s endorsement gives Dunn a notable boost, but the lack of a Moore endorsement keeps the race open. The primary remains uncertain with several candidates in the field.
Who is running for Maryland’s 5th Congressional District in the 2026 election and where do candidates stand on the issues? Read their answers to our questions.
Gov. Wes Moore announced several endorsements for political office Thursday, but one name was missing from the list: Senate President Bill Ferguson.
Rep. Kevin Kiley of California said he will be the House of Representatives' lone Independent after leaving the GOP to run in a Democrat-leaning district.
Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has endorsed former U.S. Capitol Police officer Harry Dunn, who is running in the Democratic primary in Maryland's 5th Congressional District.
This week’s Executive Dysfunction.
An 82-year-old Virginia senator raising the stakes, an Indiana consensus builder and a Texas enforcer are among state officials who have shaped the course of the midterm redistricting race.
Steny Hoyer
Steny Hoyer endorsed Adrian Boafo in the race for Maryland's 5th Congressional District.
Q. BareebeQuincy Bareebe
H. DunnHarry DunnA. BoafoAdrian Boafo
H. JarinHarry Jarin
W. BlegayWala Blegay
A. EllisArthur Ellis
R. IIIRushern Baker III
N. WilliamsNicole Williams
D. SundbergDave Sundberg
W. KirklandWalter Kirkland
T. StarrTracy Starr
H. LuperHeather Luper
A. SolisAlexis Solis
T. JacksonTerry Jackson
K. SimonsKenneth Simons
R. IIReuben Collins IISource: FEC
New updates coming soon
We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.
