Race Rating
Safe or unrated
Cook/270toWin 2026
Partisan lean: Safe Republican or unrated
ClosedGeneral Election
2026 Mississippi House Election Polls, Odds & Candidates
Election Day: Recorded market close:
MS-03 House winner?
$4.9K
NOV 3, 2026
General Election
Voters choose the office holder.
Race Snapshot
Compare the candidates' saved odds and fundraising. Updated .
| Candidate | Saved odds | Funds raised |
|---|---|---|
| 99% | $822.8K | |
| 3% | $155.4K |
OddsSaved odds
Prices saved with this edition; no automatic updates.
Odds History
Total volume
$4.9K
24h volume
$361
source: Kalshi
Politics IQ
Structural race context from reviewed jurisdiction data
Mississippi 3rd District · US House
Safe or unratedSafe Republican or unratedDistrict contextRunoff possible
Seat Dynamics
Incumbent defense
Incumbent: Michael Guest (R)
Election Rules
Primary Mar 10, 2026
Runoff: Apr 7, 2026
General: Nov 3, 2026
Sources reviewed May 2, 2026 · Office of the Clerk · 270toWin/Cook · 270toWin · NCSL
Election Dates and Deadlines
Important voting dates, registration deadlines and prediction market closing times.
Latest Election News
Recent reporting and announcements directly related to this race and its candidates.
AINews Summary
The biggest development is renewed redistricting pressure in Mississippi after a Supreme Court Voting Rights Act ruling. Mississippi is one of several states where new maps could be considered before 2026. No district-specific candidate or polling news is reported here. Redistricting talk could change the district’s partisan outlook, but the effect is still unclear. For now, it mainly adds uncertainty to the market.
Articles
CNCable News Network2 days ago
CNN’s 11 Senate seats most likely to flip, the day before the midterms
On the eve of the election, Democrats appear within striking distance of winning the Senate majority, but many seats in play are in toss-up territory in deep-red states that could still break in either party’s direction.
SSlate7 days ago
Josh Turek takes on Ashley Hinson-and it's close.
Republicans were on the verge of a sweep here just two years ago. Now, they're trying to limit their losses.
PPOLITICO2 days ago
The 'Blacklash' Is Here
Anger at Trump is driving a surge in Black turnout across the South.
JCJackson Clarion-Ledger6 days ago
Mississippi voter guide for November 3 election for US Senate, House
The Clarion Ledger voter guide for the Nov. 3 election features all U.S. Senate and House races in Mississippi and local contests in the Jackson area.
WCWDIV ClickOnDetroit6 days ago
The Latest: Trump pushing to keep red-state Senate seats in GOP hands
President Donald Trump told Texans they’d better accept data centers in their communities and floated making Venezuela the 51st state as he stumped for Republican Ken Paxton, while Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico said a “corruption crisis” plagues U.S. politics.
PNPBS News7 days ago
Democrats put economy and affordability at center of final campaign push
With one week until Election Day, the final push is on. President Trump is making a swing through Texas, a state Republicans have long counted on, but where Democrats see an opportunity to make gains. With voters pointing to the cost of everyday necessities, the economy is looming large in the final week of the campaign. Lisa Desjardins reports.
KNKnoxville News-Sentinel1 month ago
Meet the three women vying for a place in TN history
For the first time in Tennessee’s 230-year history, voters are poised to elect a woman to lead the Volunteer State.
WWTOP2 months ago
Third time the charm? Democrat Christina Bohannan tries again in pivotal US House race in Iowa
COLUMBUS JUNCTION, Iowa (AP) — It may have seemed out of place for a university professor from the liberal enclave of Iowa City to be holding court at a…
RReuters3 months ago
In rural Wisconsin, frustrations over Trump ag policies heat up House race
When she’s not trekking across Wisconsin’s 3rd Congressional District to meet voters, Democratic congressional challenger Rebecca Cooke is still on her feet, waiting tables at two restaurants around Eau Claire, a city of about 73,000 people surrounded by rolling farmland.
SSlate4 months ago
Republicans Have a New Supervillain in the Works
You’re going to be hearing a lot more about Darializa Avila Chevalier.
Campaign Fundraising
Total RaisedCash on Hand
Jun 30, 2026$1M
$750K
$500K
$250K
$0
M. Guest
M. Chiaradio
Candidate
Total Raised
Cash on Hand
Burn Rate (per month)
Last report
M. GuestMichael Guest$822.8KContrib: $821.8K
$962.5KSpent: $371.6K
$20.6KLast period: $60.0K
JULY QUARTERLY · Jun 30, 2026
M. ChiaradioMichael Chiaradio$155.4KContrib: $138.3K
$23.2KSpent: $132.2K
$7.3KLast period: $37.2K
JULY QUARTERLY · Jun 30, 2026
Source: FEC
Related Races
Saved Kalshi settlement results
These are market contract results, not election calls or vote totals. News, polls, prices and charts remain as captured.
Observation saved Nov 4, 2026, 11:35 AM UTC. No automatic updates.
MS-03 House winner?
All preserved contracts have verified final results.
Will Democratic win the House race for MS-03?
Final: No
Settled Nov 4, 2026, 7:04 AM UTC
Will Republican win the House race for MS-03?
Final: Yes
Settled Nov 4, 2026, 7:04 AM UTC