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Who will win the 2026 New York District 17 US House Democratic Primary?

Jun 27, 2026, 3:59am UTC, in 11 daysLast updated: Jun 16, 2026, 4:38 AM UTC

NY-17 Democratic nominee?

$49.7K

JUN 27, 2026

Primary Election

Party selects its nominee.

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OddsCurrent Odds

Track how candidate odds have moved across common market windows.

Total volume

$49.7K

24h volume

$1.9K

C. Conley74%

B. Davidson22%

E. Phillips-Staley2%

Loading chart data...

source: Kalshi

Upcoming Events

June

TUE 23

New York 2026 primary

November

TUE 3

New York 2026 general election

Latest Insights

NY-17 Democratic nominee?

Peter Chatzky has raised $11,640,655.60 this cycle, but Cait Conley holds the lead in the latest odds for "NY-17 Democratic nominee?"

News

AINews Summary

Recent opinion coverage has leaned toward Beth Davidson and Cait Conley as strong Democratic choices in NY-17. Early voting is underway, and the primary remains competitive among several leading candidates. A court ruling also kept Effie Phillips-Staley on the ballot. The latest coverage may modestly boost Davidson and Conley, but it does not show an official shift in the race. The primary still looks competitive, with ballot-access uncertainty reduced for Phillips-Staley.

Articles

RDRochester Democrat and Chronicle16 hours ago

Beth Davidson is best for NY-17 Democrats

Beth Davidson is the right choice to take on Republican Congressman Mike Lawler in the midterms.

WPWhite Plains Journal News3 days ago

Cait Conley can beat Mike Lawler

Democrats in New York's 17th Congressional District must support Cait Conley in the June 23 primary.

NYNew York Post3 days ago

Early voting starts Saturday in NY's primary elections

A slew of congressional and state chamber seats are up for grabs, with tens of thousands of ballots expected to be cast as early voting gets underway from June 13-21 ahead of the June 23 election.

WEWashington Examiner23 days ago

Vulnerable Mike Lawler embraces Trump in high

For Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY), whose district was one of three GOP-held seats to support Harris in 2024, appearing alongside Trump carries political risk.

NNewsmax25 days ago

Trump Joins Lawler to Test Economic Pitch in Competitive New York District

President Donald Trump joined Representative Mike Lawler in New York’s Hudson Valley to promote tax policies and appeal to suburban voters ahead of competitive congressional elections.

SSSpokane Spokesman-Review25 days ago

Trump joins Lawler to test fiscal pitch in competitive New York district

Donald Trump campaigned on Friday in New York’s Hudson Valley to support a vulnerable House Republican facing re-election in November, a rare test of the U.S. president’s standing with suburban voters concerned about rising costs.

WPWhite Plains Journal News25 days ago

As Trump-Lawler rally nears, Dem warns about Rockland's GOP-voting Dems

With President Trump visiting Rockland to support Rep. Mike Lawler, Democrats are debating the potential impact on Hasidic and Orthodox Jewish voters.

WPWhite Plains Journal News1 month ago

President Trump endorses Mike Lawler in NY-17 congressional race

President Donald Trump gave Rep. Mike Lawler his "Complete and Total Endorsement" and branded Democratic candidate Effie Phillip-Staley a "FRAUDSTER"

NYNew York Post2 months ago

NY Rep. Mike Lawler accuses Dem rival of forging voter signatures

Republican Rep. Mike Lawler is accusing the campaign of one of his Democratic opponents Effie Phillips-Staley, of forging dozens of voter signatures on petitions to qualify for the primary ballot in a lawsuit.

Polls

Polling Average

25%20%15%10%5%0%

22%

19.8%

10%

B. Davidson

C. Conley

P. Chatzky

E. Phillips-Staley

M. Sacks

J. Cappello

Date (Start - End)	Spread	Davidson	Conley	Chatzky	Phillips-Staley	Sacks	Cappello
Polling Average	Davidson+2.3	22.0%	19.8%	10.0%	6.0%	2.3%	1.0%
Global Strategy GroupMay 7 - 12	Conley+7.0	22.0%	29.0%	–	6.0%	4.0%	2.0%
Data for ProgressApr 17 - 24	Davidson+11.0	26.0%	15.0%	–	8.0%	–	–
Impact ResearchFeb 24 - 26	Davidson+6.0	23.0%	17.0%	8.0%	5.0%	1.0%	1.0%
Lake Research PartnersJan 27 - Feb 1	Conley+1.0	17.0%	18.0%	12.0%	5.0%	2.0%	0.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Fundraising

Total RaisedCash on Hand

Jun 3, 2026

$20M

$15M

$10M

$5M

P. Chatzky

C. Conley

B. Davidson

E. Phillips-Staley

J. Reinmann

J. Sullivan

M. Sacks

J. Cappello

Candidate

Total Raised

Cash on Hand

Burn Rate (per month)

Last report

P. ChatzkyPeter Chatzky

$11.64MContrib: $349.2K

$5.60MSpent: $6.04M

$402.9KLast period: $48.9K

APRIL QUARTERLY · Mar 31, 2026

C. ConleyCait Conley

$3.26MContrib: $3.08M

$941.0KSpent: $2.32M

$128.7KLast period: $594.1K

PRE-PRIMARY · Jun 3, 2026

B. DavidsonBeth Davidson

$2.06MContrib: $2.06M

$414.2KSpent: $1.65M

$91.6KLast period: $208.4K

PRE-PRIMARY · Jun 3, 2026

E. Phillips-StaleyEffie Phillips-Staley

$695.6KContrib: $474.1K

$55.3KSpent: $640.4K

$35.6KLast period: $230.4K

PRE-PRIMARY · Jun 3, 2026

J. ReinmannJessica Reinmann

$655.5KContrib: $535.2K

$42.1KSpent: $613.3K

$40.9KLast period: $0

APRIL QUARTERLY · Mar 31, 2026

J. SullivanJohn Sullivan

$477.9KContrib: $454.5K

$7.1KSpent: $470.8K

$31.4KLast period: -$20.1K

APRIL QUARTERLY · Mar 31, 2026

M. SacksMike Sacks

$298.0KContrib: $298.0K

$16.9KSpent: $281.1K

$15.6KLast period: $8.5K

PRE-PRIMARY · Jun 3, 2026

J. CappelloJohn Cappello

$64.8KContrib: $64.8K

$12.6KSpent: $52.2K

$3.5KLast period: $11.9K

APRIL QUARTERLY · Mar 31, 2026

Source: FEC

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

Endorsements

Who will win the 2026 New York District 17 US House Democratic Primary?

NY-17 Democratic nominee?

OddsCurrent Odds

Upcoming Events

Latest Insights

NY-17 Democratic nominee?

News

Beth Davidson is best for NY-17 Democrats

Cait Conley can beat Mike Lawler

Early voting starts Saturday in NY's primary elections

Vulnerable Mike Lawler embraces Trump in high

Trump Joins Lawler to Test Economic Pitch in Competitive New York District

Trump joins Lawler to test fiscal pitch in competitive New York district

As Trump-Lawler rally nears, Dem warns about Rockland's GOP-voting Dems

President Trump endorses Mike Lawler in NY-17 congressional race

NY Rep. Mike Lawler accuses Dem rival of forging voter signatures

Polls

Fundraising

Related races

NY-12 Democratic nominee?

New York Governor winner?

NY-10 Democratic nominee?

NY-07 Democratic nominee?

Upcoming Events

Latest Insights

NY-17 Democratic nominee?

News

Beth Davidson is best for NY-17 Democrats

Cait Conley can beat Mike Lawler

Early voting starts Saturday in NY's primary elections

Vulnerable Mike Lawler embraces Trump in high

Trump Joins Lawler to Test Economic Pitch in Competitive New York District

Trump joins Lawler to test fiscal pitch in competitive New York district

As Trump-Lawler rally nears, Dem warns about Rockland's GOP-voting Dems

President Trump endorses Mike Lawler in NY-17 congressional race

NY Rep. Mike Lawler accuses Dem rival of forging voter signatures

Polls

Fundraising

Related races

NY-12 Democratic nominee?

New York Governor winner?

NY-10 Democratic nominee?

NY-07 Democratic nominee?