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AUG 7, 2026Primary Election
Party selects its nominee.
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Track how candidate odds have moved across common market windows.
source: Kalshi
Warner dropped sharply to 9% while Taylor stayed near 69% and Bergmann rose to 8%, signaling the market is consolidating around Taylor in the TN-09 Republican primary. The redistricting-driven coverage and Cohen’s exit make this race newly relevant for traders watching the nomination path.
Tennessee’s new congressional map is still in effect after court challenges did not block it before the August 6 primary. The redraw splits Memphis into three districts and has made the 9th more Republican-leaning. Rep. Steve Cohen has also dropped his reelection bid in the redrawn seat. The map staying in place likely reinforces the Republican nomination market by keeping the redrawn district’s new shape intact. Ongoing lawsuits still add some uncertainty, but the immediate effect appears to favor stability.
Tennessee Rep. Steve Cohen broke down in tears while reflecting on his decision to drop his reelection bid after redistricting all but ensured he had no path to victory.
The NAACP is urging Black student-athletes to withhold their college commitments in states where new congressional maps could be drawn.
See what has happened and what is next in the four lawsuits trying to block Tennessee Republicans' congressional redistricting.
C. BergmannCharlotte BergmannSource: FEC
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