$87.8K
AUG 5, 2026Primary Election
Party selects its nominee.
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Track how candidate odds have moved across common market windows.
source: Kalshi
Eugene Vindman’s nomination odds have pushed to 97% after the Virginia Supreme Court kept the current congressional map in place, and recent reporting says some Democrats who were considering alternate districts are dropping out or reshuffling plans. That leaves traders with a still-dominant front-runner and fewer obvious paths for a late primary shock.
Vindman’s nomination odds rose from 95% to 90% in the last hour, extending an already dominant position. That keeps the market firmly centered on him and makes any new challenger news more relevant for traders than the rest of the field.
Eugene Vindman is now the front-runner with 90% odds and a lead of 88.0 points.
There is no new VA-07 nomination development in the provided news. The only Virginia item says Beth Macy is the last candidate left in the VA-6 Democratic primary, which is a different race. No clear new information appears to affect the VA-07 Democratic nomination market. The latest relevant item is about a different Virginia district, so this event looks unchanged and still uncertain.
With the candidate filing deadline days away, the Democratic primary field for the 6th Congressional District narrowed further on Thursday.
An unprecedented gerrymandering effort led by Donald Trump—and internal divisions among Democrats—has made the Minority Leader’s path to victory harder than ever, Jason Zengerle reports.
Families read names and planted flags at the annual Memorial Day ceremony, as military leaders emphasized the human cost of war and officials connected the sacrifices to the nation's 250th anniversary celebrations.
Rep. Tom Kean Jr.'s absence from his 7th Congressional District seat could serve New Jersey Democrats a fresh midterm advantage.
E. VindmanEugene Vindman
D. HelmerDan Helmer
J. CooneyJ P CooneySource: FEC
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We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.
