$32.9K
JUN 9, 2026Primary Election
Party selects its nominee.
Track how candidate odds have moved across common market windows.
source: Kalshi
Yvette Herrell is the candidate in "New Mexico Republican Governor nominee?" and is currently at 4%.
Hull remains the clear market favorite at 74%, and fresh reporting still frames him as the frontrunner with the June 2 primary nearing. That keeps the trade centered on whether anyone can mount a late challenge, rather than on a leadership change.
Hull’s New Mexico Republican gubernatorial nomination price rose to 79%, extending a multi-day climb as fresh local coverage continues to frame him as the clear front-runner. With the June 2 primary nearing, the move reinforces Hull as the trader favorite unless another candidate closes the gap fast.
New Mexico’s governor race is being shaped by a debate over how to use a new oil-revenue windfall. Democrats Deb Haaland and Sam Bregman are offering different tax and spending plans, while Republicans are criticizing state programs and taxes. Early voting trends are also showing independents leaning Democratic, but that appears more relevant to the other primary. The oil-revenue debate is mostly issue framing and does not clearly shift the Republican nominee market. The early-vote data are more relevant to the Democratic primary than this race, so the impact here looks limited.
A global oil bottleneck in the Strait of Hormuz has created a financial windfall on the other side of the world in New Mexico that is both enviable and politically sensitive in a Democratic-dominated state.
With expanded early voting set to begin, just 25% of unaffiliated voters have selected Republican ballots
SACRAMENTO, Calif. (AP) — Democrat Xavier Becerra is counting on his decades-long public career to catapult him into the California governor's office, but that lengthy political resume has also given his critics fodder to question his competence in the race's closing weeks.
Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne
Y. HerrellYvette HerrellSource: FEC
New updates coming soon
We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.
