$2.5K
NOV 6, 2030
General Election
Voters choose the office holder.
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Prediction market probabilities from Kalshi, updated as market prices change. Last updated Sep 9, 2026, 4:23 PM UTC.
source: Kalshi
Compare the candidates' live odds. Updated .
| Candidate | Live odds |
|---|---|
| 64% | |
| 10% | |
| 8% | |
| 7% | |
| 3% | |
| 3% | |
| 3% | |
| 3% | |
| 3% | |
| 2% |
Important voting dates, registration deadlines and prediction market closing times.
Recent reporting and announcements directly related to this race and its candidates.
The main new development is Julie Menin’s launch of NY Rising PAC, which has sparked speculation about a possible future mayoral run. Her team says the PAC is only for supporting Democrats this fall. No other reported item adds direct news on the 2029 New York City mayoral race. The Menin PAC launch may slightly increase attention on her as a possible future contender, but the effect on the market is still uncertain. There is no clear shift in odds yet.
City Council Speaker Julie Menin has launched her own statewide PAC to boost Democrats in November — fueling speculation she may be trying to spread her tentacles for a potential run for higher office.
New York's state and federal elections this year include Gov. Kathy Hochul's battle with GOP challenger Bruce Blakeman and a key congressional race
Rep. Mike Lawler is considered one of the nation’s most vulnerable Republicans in this year’s midterm elections, but he's held on before.
Rep. Jamie Raskin is the latest Democrat to proclaim that Hasan Piker and his rancid views are merely an "irrelevant distraction." It's a dangerous, cynical lie.
James Talarico, the Texas Senate Democrat nominee, is shown on video calling capitalism an 'oppressive system' linked to White supremacy that must be dismantled.
Only about 50 of the 435 races for the House of Representatives are expected to be competitive on the November 3 U.S. midterm ballot, but they could decide whether Democrats gain the three seats needed to reclaim control of the chamber from Republicans.
U.S. Rep. Mike Lawler is considered one of the nation’s most vulnerable Republicans in this year’s midterm elections.
New updates coming soon
We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.
