Prediction Edge

Live Odds

Current prediction-market probability for the candidate, updated as market prices change.

Butch Ware is trading at 29% to win the 2028 Green Presidential nominee on prediction markets.

Candidate Overview

Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.

Current roleHistorian

Political ideologyGreen

GenderMale

LocationCalifornia

BackgroundHistorian

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EducationPhD, University of Pennsylvania (earned 2004)

Notable personal detailsRudolph “Butch” Ware is a historian and university professor specializing in African and Islamic history. He is a faculty member in the Department of History at the University of California, Santa Barbara. In 2024 he was the Green Party vice-presidential nominee as Jill Stein’s running mate. He later ran as a write-in candidate for Governor of California in the June 2, 2026 primary.

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Political Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

Supports steeply progressive state taxation and new taxes on wealth and vacant properties, closing commercial property tax loopholes (split-roll) and reducing regressive taxes while funding expanded public programs and public banking. Advocates large public spending programs for housing, healthcare (single-payer CalCare), living wages, and green job creation.

Healthcare

Supports a universal single-payer system (CalCare) guaranteeing comprehensive, free-at-point-of-service healthcare for every California resident with no premiums, copays, deductibles, or coinsurance. Seeks to implement CalCare as a statewide public program with broad benefits and patient choice of provider. Campaign materials frame healthcare as a human right and prioritize implementing universal coverage early in the administration.

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Immigration & Border

Supports ending California’s cooperation with ICE, ending transfers of state prisoners into ICE custody, and implementing policies to protect immigrant communities; favors providing free or affordable health care to all people living in the state, including undocumented immigrants. Emphasizes reducing enforcement cooperation and prioritizing inclusion and justice for immigrant communities.

Abortion & Reproductive Rights

The candidate supports reproductive rights and access to abortion while indicating there should be some limits and regulations (he referenced a 16-week threshold in a past interview). He affirms support for safe, legal, and accessible abortion and frames restrictions as disproportionately harmful, while acknowledging common-sense limits.

Climate & Energy

Supports aggressive public ownership and rapid decarbonization measures including a statewide publicly-owned energy grid, banning new oil/gas drilling and fracking, capping inactive wells, investing in statewide renewable electric transit, and decommissioning nuclear facilities.

Public Safety & Guns

Supports enforcement of existing gun laws and policies that demilitarize police and reform the carceral system while prioritizing public-safety and restorative-justice approaches. Platform emphasizes policing reforms and upholding current firearm regulations rather than expanding or eliminating gun rights in absolute terms.

Latest News

AINews Summary
Last updatedJul 15, 2026

Butch Ware is in the news because he is running in California’s 2026 gubernatorial primary and has been part of a crowded Democratic field. He recently sued Secretary of State Shirley Weber after his ballot paperwork was rejected over disputed tax return requirements, putting his ballot access in federal court. The race itself remains unsettled, with Democrats worried that a split field could help Republicans advance in the top-two primary system.

butchware4gov.com+51

Latest Polls

Recent polling results and the candidate's current average in the race.

Public Policy Institute of California
5%4%3%2%1%0%
Butch Ware
B. Ware
Date (Start - End)SpreadShare
Public Policy Institute of CaliforniaFeb 11, 2026
2.0%
EMC ResearchFeb 4, 2026
2.0%
Public Policy Institute of CaliforniaNov 19, 2025
1.0%
Public Policy Institute of CaliforniaNov 19, 2025
1.0%
EMC ResearchOct 26, 2025
2.0%
EMC ResearchOct 26, 2025
2.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Endorsements

5
California Governor winner? (Person)

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We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

  • Fundraising