Prediction Edge
Democrat
David Jolly

David Jolly

Democratic candidate for Governor in Florida

Live Odds

Current prediction-market probability for the candidate, updated as market prices change.

David Jolly is trading at 100% to win the Florida Democratic Governor nominee? on prediction markets.

Candidate Overview

Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.

Current roleFormer U.S. Representative

PartyDemocratic

Political ideologyModerate Democrat

Age53 years old (Oct 31, 1972)

GenderMale

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LocationFlorida

BackgroundAttorney

EducationEmory University (B.A., 1994)

Notable personal detailsDavid W. Jolly is an American attorney and former member of the U.S. House of Representatives from Florida’s 13th congressional district, serving from March 11, 2014 to January 3, 2017. Before Congress, he worked on the staff of U.S. Rep. C. W. Bill Young and later practiced law. He earned a B.A. from Emory University and a J.D. (cum laude) from George Mason University, and launched a campaign for Governor of Florida in June 2025.

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Political Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

The candidate supports targeted revenue increases (taxing insurance-company profits, revising tourist development taxes, and implementing combined reporting) to fund a state catastrophic insurance fund, education, and affordability measures while opposing unconditional repeal of property taxes without revenue replacement. He has also said he favors some lower corporate taxes in general but emphasizes raising revenue from specific sectors to address Florida’s affordability and insurance crises.

Healthcare

Supports expanding access to care through government programs and the ACA; backs using state resources to address healthcare deserts and preserve ACA subsidies and Medicaid expansion rather than market-only approaches.

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Immigration & Border

The candidate supports valuing and investing in immigrant communities, favors streamlined pathways to legal status and more open access for people seeking to contribute to the economy, and opposes conflating immigration with crime. He has said he would not require enforcement of 287(g) ICE agreements at the state level and suggested suspending such agreements pending review of due process protections.

Abortion & Reproductive Rights

The candidate supports codifying the Roe–Casey standard into law and has said he would introduce legislation to protect abortion rights at the state level. He states abortion should be allowed until fetal viability with medical exceptions and favors keeping politicians and laws out of the doctor’s office, while endorsing parental involvement for minors with exceptions in abuse cases.

Climate & Energy

Supports the reality of human-caused climate change, favors investments in renewable and clean energy and climate resiliency, and endorses using incentives and federal funds to address disaster risk and coastal/ water issues. Emphasizes accepting climate science and expanding clean-energy and resilience measures while not explicitly endorsing Green New Deal–style fossil-fuel phaseouts in the cited materials.

Public Safety & Guns

The candidate supports an assault-weapons ban, universal and more comprehensive background checks (including private and intra-family transfers), licensing/registration and liability insurance for gun owners, storage requirements, and expansion/preservation of red-flag laws.

Latest News

AINews Summary
Last updatedJul 15, 2026

David Jolly is emerging as the likely Democratic nominee for Florida governor in 2026 after Jerry Demings withdrew from the primary. He has now named former congresswoman Gwen Graham as his running mate and Sean Pittman to help lead transition planning. The campaign is trying to build a centrist, statewide coalition around affordability and other issues, but it still faces a big Republican voter-registration and fundraising advantage.

history.house.gov+53

Latest Polls

Recent polling results and the candidate's current average in the race.

David Jolly currently averages 26.3%, ranking second in this race, 14.7 points behind the next candidate.

Polling average: 26.3%Position: secondMargin: -14.7 ptsLatest poll: 42.0% (Jul 9 - 11)Polls included: 9

Average recalculated from polls through Jul 9 - 11.

Polling Average
50%40%30%20%10%0%
26.3%
41%
23.5%
21.5%
9%
6%
5%
David Jolly
D. Jolly
Jason Pizzo
J. Pizzo
Daniella Levine Cava
D. Cava
Jerry Demings
J. Demings
Gwen Graham
G. Graham
Dotie Joseph
D. Joseph
Angie Nixon
A. Nixon
Fentrice Driskell
F. Driskell
Shevrin Jones
S. Jones
Date (Start - End)SpreadJollyPizzoCavaDemingsGrahamJosephNixonDriskellJones
Polling Average
Pizzo+14.7
26.3%41.0%23.5%21.5%9.0%6.0%5.0%4.0%3.0%
Change ResearchJul 9 - 11
Jolly+36.0
42.0%6.0%
Change ResearchMay 13 - 16
Jolly+15.0
42.0%27.0%
Change ResearchMay 13 - 16
Jolly+11.0
39.0%28.0%
Emerson CollegeMar 29 - 31
Jolly+10.6
20.7%10.1%
Targoz Market ResearchFeb 13 - 16
Jolly+8.0
31.0%23.0%
Mason-Dixon Polling & StrategyJan 8 - 13
Jolly+4.0
23.0%19.0%
Public Policy PollingDec 2 - 3
Jolly+0.0
22.0%22.0%
Targoz Market ResearchMay 5 - 7
Cava+22.0
10.0%32.0%13.0%6.0%7.0%4.0%
Targoz Market ResearchApr 15 - 22
Pizzo+34.0
7.0%41.0%15.0%5.0%4.0%1.0%2.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

  • Endorsements
  • Fundraising