$251.9M
NOV 7, 2028Primary Election
Party selects its nominee.
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Prediction market probabilities from Kalshi, updated as market prices change. Last updated Oct 31, 2026, 4:28 AM UTC.
Total volume
$251.9M
24h volume
$1.0M
source: Kalshi
Compare the candidates' live odds. Updated .
| Candidate | Live odds |
|---|---|
| 17% | |
| 15% | |
| 14% | |
| 7% | |
| 5% | |
| 5% | |
| 5% | |
| 4% | |
| 4% | |
| 3% | |
| 3% | |
| 2% | |
| 2% | |
| 2% | |
| 2% | |
| 1% | |
| 1% | |
| 1% | |
| 1% | |
| 1% | |
| 1% | |
| 1% | |
| 1% | |
| 1% | |
| 1% | |
| 1% | |
| 1% | |
| 1% | |
| 1% | |
| 1% | |
| 1% |
Important voting dates, registration deadlines and prediction market closing times.
Recent reporting and announcements directly related to this race and its candidates.
Newsom said he would sit out the 2028 Democratic race if Harris runs, which could reduce one major source of competition. The reporting also says Harris is currently leading early polling in a prospective field that includes Buttigieg and Ocasio-Cortez. Newsom’s conditional exit could narrow the field and slightly strengthen Harris if she runs. Overall, the market still looks early and uncertain because no official nomination decisions have been made.
Whether either party wins or loses Tuesday, the end of the 2026 midterms marks the beginning of a high-stakes fight over the post-Trump era.
Plus: Explanations lacking in Academy closure, preventing gas shutoffs is misguided, and Jeffery “Jay” Young Jr. doth protest too much.
The nation’s major political parties are at a crossroads. Win or lose Tuesday, the end of the 2026 midterms marks the beginning of a high-stakes fight over the direction of the Republican and Democratic parties as the Trump era nears its end.
New updates coming soon
We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.
