Prediction Edge
Republican
Matt Gaetz

Matt Gaetz

Republican candidate for Presidential in Florida

Live Odds

Current prediction-market probability for the candidate, updated as market prices change.

Matt Gaetz is trading at 0% to win the 2028 Republican presidential nominee on prediction markets.

Candidate Overview

Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.

Current roleFormer U.S. Representative

PartyRepublican

Political ideologyTrump-aligned Republican

Age44 years old (May 7, 1982)

GenderMale

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LocationFlorida

BackgroundAttorney

EducationFlorida State University — B.S. (2003)

Notable personal detailsMatthew Louis Gaetz II is an American politician and attorney who served as the U.S. representative for Florida's 1st congressional district from 2017 until resigning on 2024-11-13. He previously served in the Florida House of Representatives from 2010 to 2016. He earned a B.S. from Florida State University and a J.D. from the College of William & Mary Law School and worked in private legal practice.

SourcesShow

Political Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

Supports major tax cuts and free-market policies, has repeatedly voted for tax reductions and deregulation, and has proposed legislation to eliminate taxes on tips. He has endorsed replacing the income tax with a national sales tax (FairTax) in the past and frames tax cuts as a path to economic growth and reduced government size.

Healthcare

Supports repeal of the Affordable Care Act and favors conservative, market-based health‑care reforms rather than expanded government programs. Has repeatedly urged repeal of Obamacare and backed Republican replacement efforts. Advocated restricting federal roles in health programs and opposed COVID vaccine/pass digital health mandates tied to federal funding.

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Immigration & Border

Supports restrictionist and enforcement-focused immigration policies, including ending unqualified birthright citizenship and tightening border controls; has introduced legislation to limit birthright citizenship and has called for shutting the southern border and other strong enforcement measures.

Abortion & Reproductive Rights

Supports strong legal restrictions on abortion and identifies as "pro‑life without exception." Has sponsored and backed legislation to ban taxpayer-funded abortions, defund Planned Parenthood, and extend legal protection to unborn life (life begins at conception).

Climate & Energy

Supports acknowledging that the Earth is warming but favors market-driven, innovation-focused responses and reduced regulation rather than aggressive federal mandates; has proposed a Republican “Green Real Deal” emphasizing clean energy investment through private-sector innovation while opposing expanded EPA regulation.

Public Safety & Guns

Supports expansive Second Amendment rights, opposes 'red flag' laws and other new restrictions, and has advocated for policies that expand carrying rights and reciprocity. Holds a lifetime NRA membership and an A/A+ rating from the NRA and has made public statements characterizing the Second Amendment as a bulwark against government overreach.

Latest News

AINews Summary
Last updatedSep 2, 2026

Matt Gaetz is being discussed in the context of Republican election and policy fights, especially around voter ID, redistricting, and Florida politics. Recent coverage also points to Democrats trying to make corruption a central 2026 campaign issue, which could keep figures like Gaetz in the spotlight. The available reports do not show a single major new action by Gaetz, so the picture is mostly about the political environment around him.

history.house.gov+69

Latest Polls

Florida Republican Governor nominee?

Recent polling results and the candidate's current average in the race.

Matt Gaetz currently averages 11.6%, ranking third in this race, 8.8 points behind the next candidate.

Polling average: 11.6%Position: thirdMargin: -8.8 ptsLatest poll: 8.0% (Jul 14 - 22)Polls included: 8

Average recalculated from polls through Jul 14 - 22.

Polling Average
40%30%20%10%0%
11.6%
31.8%
20.4%
Matt Gaetz
M. Gaetz
Casey DeSantis
C. DeSantis
Byron Donalds
B. Donalds
Jimmy Patronis
J. Patronis
Charles Burkett
C. Burkett
Wilton Simpson
W. Simpson
Date (Start - End)SpreadGaetzDeSantisDonaldsPatronisBurkettSimpson
Polling Average
DeSantis+20.2
11.6%31.8%20.4%3.2%3.0%2.2%
University of North Florida Public Opinion Research LabJul 14 - 22
DeSantis+24.0
8.0%32.0%29.0%1.0%
Targoz Market ResearchMay 5 - 7
DeSantis+19.0
10.0%29.0%28.0%3.0%4.0%
Targoz Market ResearchApr 15 - 22
DeSantis+19.0
8.0%27.0%24.0%3.0%4.0%
Florida Atlantic University PolCom Lab/Mainstreet ResearchJun 8 - 9
DeSantis+30.0
13.0%43.0%19.0%5.0%
Florida Atlantic University PolCom Lab/Mainstreet ResearchApr 15 - 17
DeSantis+21.5
16.1%37.6%
Victory InsightsApr 3 - 6
Donalds+7.8
12.8%20.6%2.9%2.1%
Kaplan StrategiesFeb 27 - 28
Gaetz+3.0
16.0%13.0%2.0%1.0%
University of North Florida Public Opinion Research LabOct 23 - Nov 4
DeSantis+13.0
9.0%22.0%9.0%3.0%1.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Campaign Fundraising

Latest report: Cycle 2026

Campaign finance totals from the latest available reporting period.

Total raisedCash on hand
$6.8M
$5.1M
$3.4M
$1.7M
$0

2024

2026

Latest
Year
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate

Cycle 2024

$6.8M
$518.2K
$6.8M
$284.3K

Cycle 2026

$176.4K
$37.3K
$657.2K
$36.5K

Source: FEC

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

  • Endorsements