$1.7M
NOV 7, 2028Primary Election
Party selects its nominee.
Deposit $10, get $25 on Polymarket
Prediction market probabilities from Kalshi, updated as market prices change. Last updated Oct 31, 2026, 8:58 AM UTC.
source: Kalshi
Compare the candidates' live odds. Updated .
| Candidate | Live odds |
|---|---|
| 27% | |
| 5% | |
| 5% | |
| 4% | |
| 3% | |
| 3% | |
| 3% | |
| 3% | |
| 2% | |
| 2% | |
| 2% | |
| 2% | |
| 2% | |
| 2% | |
| 1% | |
| 1% | |
| 1% | |
| 1% | |
| 1% | |
| 1% | |
| 1% |
Important voting dates, registration deadlines and prediction market closing times.
Recent reporting and announcements directly related to this race and its candidates.
JD Vance is emerging as the clear early favorite for the 2028 Republican vice presidential nomination after high-profile GOP appearances in Dallas. Marco Rubio and several other names are still being discussed, and Vance says he will wait until after the midterms to decide. Vance’s repeated high-profile appearances likely strengthen his position in the market, but his lack of a formal decision keeps some uncertainty. The field still looks open enough for other contenders to matter.
Whether either party wins or loses Tuesday, the end of the 2026 midterms marks the beginning of a high-stakes fight over the post-Trump era.
The nation’s major political parties are at a crossroads. Win or lose Tuesday, the end of the 2026 midterms marks the beginning of a high-stakes fight over the direction of the Republican and Democratic parties as the Trump era nears its end.
New updates coming soon
We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.
