Prediction Edge
RepublicanIncumbent
Nick Begich

Nick Begich

Incumbent Republican candidate for U.S. House in Alaska

Live Odds — Alaska U.S. House winner? (Person)

Current prediction-market probability for the candidate, updated as market prices change.

88%chance to win

$18.8KNOV 3, 2027

Candidate Overview

Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.

Current roleU.S. Representative

PartyRepublican

Political ideologyTrump-aligned Republican

Age48 years old (Oct 21, 1977)

GenderMale

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LocationAlaska

BackgroundU.S. Representative

EducationThe Master's Academy (Oviedo, Florida), 1995

Notable personal detailsNicholas Joseph Begich III is an American politician and businessman serving as the U.S. representative for Alaska's at-large congressional district (sworn in January 3, 2025). Before Congress, he worked as a business owner, entrepreneur, and investor. He previously ran for Alaska’s at-large U.S. House seat in the 2022 special and regular elections. He is a member of the Begich political family and is the nephew of former U.S. senator Mark Begich.

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Political Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

Supports preserving and extending recent tax cuts, opposes new income tax increases, and voted for Republican legislation that reduces taxes for working families while trimming federal spending. Emphasizes pro-growth tax policy and fiscal restraint alongside targeted investments for Alaska.

Healthcare

Supports market-oriented reforms to the Affordable Care Act and changes to Medicaid eligibility while also pursuing federal rural health funding for Alaska. Opposed a three-year extension of ACA premium subsidies and has endorsed Medicaid ‘‘integrity’’ reforms such as work requirements. Has secured federal dollars to strengthen rural hospitals and telehealth in Alaska.

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Immigration & Border

Supports stronger immigration enforcement and border controls, including expanding tools to detain and deport noncitizens who pose threats and implementing measures such as Migrant Protection Protocols. Backed legislation increasing criminal grounds for inadmissibility and deportability and voted for bills framed to give states additional enforcement standing. Emphasizes public safety and national security in immigration policy.

Abortion & Reproductive Rights

Supports restrictions on abortion while allowing exceptions for the life of the mother and for rape and incest; opposes federal funding for most abortions. Has supported federal legislation aligned with restricting abortion-related practices, including backing the Born-Alive Abortion Survivors Protection Act and related measures.

Climate & Energy

Supports expanding Alaska oil and gas development and major energy infrastructure (including Alaska LNG and pipelines), favors rolling back federal restrictions and regulations that limit resource development, and emphasizes energy independence and U.S. energy security. Policies prioritize unlocking fossil fuel and mineral resources to create jobs and strengthen economic growth rather than aggressive emissions limits.

Public Safety & Guns

The candidate strongly supports the Second Amendment and opposes gun control legislation. He has said he will defend the right to keep and bear arms, advocated firearm safety training, and cosponsored federal concealed-carry reciprocity legislation.

Latest News

AINews Summary
Last updatedAug 19, 2026

Nick Begich is in the news because Alaska’s 2026 election is underway, with his U.S. House race heading toward the primary and November general election. Recent reports say he remains the Republican incumbent and is facing challengers, while Democratic candidate Matt Schultz has ended his campaign, leaving Begich and independent Bill Hill as the main contenders. Begich has also held a cash advantage in fundraising, and outside spending is expected to play a role in the race.

history.house.gov+43

Latest Polls

Alaska U.S. House winner? (Person)

Recent polling results and the candidate's current average in the race.

Nick Begich currently averages 49.1%, ranking first in this race, 11.7 points ahead of the nearest opponent.

Polling average: 49.1%Position: firstMargin: +11.7 ptsLatest poll: 47.0% (Sep 24 - Oct 1)Polls included: 22

Average recalculated from polls through Sep 24 - Oct 1.

Polling Average
60%50%40%30%20%10%0%
49.1%
37.4%
34.8%
Nick Begich
N. Begich
Bill Hill
B. Hill
Matt Schultz
M. Schultz
John Williams
J. Williams
Date (Start - End)SpreadBegichHillSchultzWilliams
Polling Average
Begich+11.7
49.1%37.4%34.8%4.8%
The New York Times/Siena UniversitySep 24 - Oct 1
Begich+12.0
47.0%35.0%––
The New York Times/Siena UniversitySep 24 - Oct 1
Begich+6.0
53.0%47.0%––
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact ResearchSep 8 - 11
Begich+17.0
53.0%36.0%––
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact ResearchSep 8 - 11
Begich+14.0
57.0%43.0%––
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact ResearchSep 8 - 11
Begich+14.0
45.0%31.0%––
The Bullfinch GroupSep 1 - 6
Begich+3.8
50.3%46.5%––
The Bullfinch GroupSep 1 - 6
Begich+7.6
44.2%36.6%––
Alaska Survey ResearchAug 20 - 23
Begich+11.5
50.6%39.1%–5.7%
Alaska Survey ResearchAug 2 - 5
Begich+16.0
50.4%34.4%––
Alaska Survey ResearchAug 2 - 5
Begich+7.0
53.5%46.5%––
Alaska Survey ResearchAug 2 - 5
Begich+14.7
47.9%33.2%––
GBAOAug 3 - 5
Begich+4.0
46.0%42.0%––
Data for ProgressJul 28 - Aug 4
Begich+10.0
47.0%37.0%––
The Bullfinch GroupJul 13 - 16
Begich+14.0
46.0%20.0%32.0%–
The Bullfinch GroupJul 13 - 16
Begich+4.0
52.0%48.0%––
The New York Times/Siena UniversityJun 15 - 29
Begich+12.0
51.0%–39.0%–
Tavern ResearchMay 18 - 27
Begich+10.0
55.0%–45.0%–
Tavern ResearchMay 18 - 27
Begich+4.0
52.0%48.0%––
Change ResearchMar 17 - 20
Begich+28.0
45.0%13.0%17.0%4.0%
Public Policy PollingFeb 11 - 12
Begich+7.0
46.0%–39.0%–
Public Policy PollingFeb 11 - 12
Begich+4.0
41.0%37.0%––
Data for ProgressOct 17 - 23
Begich+11.0
48.0%–37.0%–

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Campaign Fundraising

Latest report: Cycle 2026

Campaign finance totals from the latest available reporting period.

Total raisedCash on hand
$5.5M
$4.1M
$2.7M
$1.4M
$0

2022

2024

2026

Latest
Year
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate

Cycle 2022

$1.6M
$41.2K
$1.6M
$66.6K

Cycle 2024

$2.8M
$104.3K
$2.7M
$114.5K

Cycle 2026

$5.5M
$3.1M
$2.5M
$129.2K

Source: FEC

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

  • Endorsements