Polling Average
60%50%40%30%20%10%0%
46%
45.3%
38%
37%
M. Peltola
N. Begich
M. Schultz
B. Hill
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$14.7K
NOV 7, 2026
General Election
Voters choose the office holder.
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Total volume
$14.7K
24h volume
$0
source: Kalshi
Recent coverage frames 2026 as a potentially strong cycle for Democrats, with one analysis saying Republicans are likely to lose the House and face a real risk in the Senate. Donor activity is also highlighted, with California donors giving heavily to Democratic candidates in several competitive races, including Alaska, even as GOP-aligned groups keep a cash edge overall. Supreme Court retirement speculation appears to be fading. The news flow leans slightly toward Democrats by reinforcing a broader narrative of Democratic competitiveness and fundraising, including in Alaska. But it’s mostly national context, so direct impact on Alaska’s House party odds may be limited.
A more limited landscape for Democratic gains and an unshakable MAGA base both put limits on Republican midterm losses despite all the problems facing that party and an unpopular president.
At stake is more than any single race. Democrats are fighting over whether the party's traditional playbook still works in a country that elected Donald Trump for a second time — and whether leaders like Schumer should remain in charge.
“Clearly there’s a disagreement of strategy here,” said New Mexico Sen. Martin Heinrich, speaking of the Maine race in particular.
Texas Republicans are headed for a brutal Senate runoff. Sen. John Cornyn narrowly leads Attorney General Ken Paxton in the first round.
The 2026 election lurches to a start on Tuesday, as voters head to the polls for the first state primaries in Arkansas, North Carolina and Texas.
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Democrats are trying to win back the Senate. But they are fighting over how to do it. Chuck Schumer is backing establishment candidates in key races. Some of his own senators are breaking ranks and endorsing more progressive challengers.
Several new polls released this week reveal Crockett and Talarico's chances in next week's Democratic primary race.
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
While Democrats are favored to flip control of the House of Representatives, the upper chamber is a much closer race, traders believe.
Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne
New updates coming soon
We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.
