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NOV 3, 2027
Primary Election
Party selects its nominee.
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Track how candidate odds have moved across common market windows.
source: Kalshi
Louisiana’s new legislation shifted congressional House elections out of the May 16 primary window and into a November open primary, which materially changes the timing and structure of the LA-01 Democratic nominee market. That makes the race less about the cancelled primary and more about who can survive the reset under the new schedule.
Lauren Jewett's odds in "LA-01 Democratic nominee?" are now 5%, below the prior low of 80%.
The biggest development is that Louisiana U.S. House votes will not count after the Supreme Court ruled the congressional map unconstitutional. The suspension came too late to redo voting machines. The summaries do not report any new candidate-specific change in the Democratic nomination race. This adds uncertainty around Louisiana election administration, but the summaries do not provide any candidate-specific shift in the Democratic nomination race.
Iowa is no stranger to political attention in presidential elections, but surprisingly competitive midterm contests highlight the state's importance for both parties as it holds its primary Tuesday.
The five-term congressman should be and probably is a shoo-in for reelection but he's being challenged in his own party by two rivals.
By JONATHAN J. COOPER and STEVE PEOPLES WASHINGTON (AP) — Is there a future in politics for Republicans who cross President Donald Trump? The signs this year suggest no, and Trump has convinced his voters to defeat his adversaries again and again. The next test of the president’s power to extract retribution is on Tuesday, […]
The NRCC’s polling of the battleground districts shows Republicans are competitive in five Democrat-held districts that Trump won in 2024.
Here are takeaways from primaries in Alabama, Georgia, Idaho, Kentucky, Oregon and Pennsylvania.
President Donald Trump has scored another win against a Republican rival, purging Rep. Thomas Massie in Kentucky’s primary and knocking out one of his most outspoken critics on Capitol Hill. Massie has been a particularly difficult thorn in Trump’s side. He pushed for the release of the Jeffrey Epstein files, opposed the war with Iran and voted against Trump’s signature tax legislation last year. He lost Tuesday to Trump-backed challenger Ed Gallrein following the most expensive U.S. House primary in history. He had tried to convince Republicans that they could support both himself and Trump at the same time, a proposition that has been tried unsuccessfully in other races around the country.
In Louisiana’s elections, Sen. Bill Cassidy is fighting for his political life as U.S. Rep. Julia Letlow and state Treasurer John Fleming try to unseat him.
BATON ROUGE — As early voting kicks off, voters may wonder what's on the ballot for the May 16 election in Louisiana.
Alabama voters will choose nominees for U.S. Senate, governor and a full slate of state and local offices.
L. JewettLauren JewettSource: FEC
New updates coming soon
We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.
