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Who will win the 2026 Louisiana Senate Republican Primary?

Jun 27, 2026, 3:59pm UTC, in 12 daysLast updated: Jun 16, 2026, 3:38 PM UTC

Louisiana Republican Senate nominee?

$780.5K

JUN 27, 2026

Primary Election

Party selects its nominee.

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OddsCurrent Odds

Track how candidate odds have moved across common market windows.

Total volume

$780.5K

24h volume

$24.1K

J. Letlow96%

J. Fleming4%

E. Skrmetta1%

Loading chart data...

source: Kalshi

Upcoming Events

June

SAT 27

Louisiana 2026 primary runoff, if required

November

TUE 3

Louisiana 2026 general election

Latest Insights

Louisiana Republican Senate nominee?

John Fleming has raised $11,250,353.83 this cycle, but Julia Letlow holds the lead in the latest odds for the Louisiana Republican Senate nominee race.

News

AINews Summary

Julia Letlow led the first round of Louisiana’s Republican Senate primary and now faces John Fleming in the June 27 runoff. Early voting is underway, and the race has turned more contentious after an AI-video dispute. The same election will also decide the Democratic nominee. Letlow’s first-place finish gives her the early edge in the Republican nomination race. The runoff and recent controversy add some uncertainty, but the latest reporting still points to Letlow as the frontrunner.

Articles

BRBaton Rouge Advocate2 days ago

Julia Letlow remains favorite in Louisiana Senate election

Julia Letlow remains the favorite to replace Bill Cassidy in the Senate, but John Fleming says he’ll win.

BRBaton Rouge Advocate4 days ago

Early voting begins Friday for Senate race, other elections

Seven days of early voting begin Friday in advance of the June 27 elections in Louisiana.

SSlate20 hours ago

era clause in the state constitution.

For advocates looking to challenge Alabama’s new maps, a recent state constitutional amendment could provide an avenue to do so.

BRBaton Rouge Advocate4 days ago

Spat erupts between Julia Letlow, John Fleming over AI video

U.S. Rep. Julia Letlow on Friday slammed Louisiana Treasurer John Fleming for sharing on social media an AI video depicting a fake version of her referring to her late husband.

BRBaton Rouge Advocate5 days ago

Early voting starts Friday in June 27 U.S. Senate race

Early voting starts Friday to select a Democratic and a Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in Lafayette Parish.

NNNBC News13 days ago

Live updates: Candidates advance to midterm battles in California, Iowa, N.J. and 3 other states

Follow the latest Trump administration news and primary coverage as election races unfold in New Jersey, California, Iowa and other states.

NNNBC News20 days ago

Trump’s May primary scorecard: From the Politics Desk

In today’s edition, we take stock of President Donald Trump’s retribution campaign this month as Ken Paxton and James Talarico look ahead to the general election in Texas.

MJMother Jones20 days ago

They’re All Ken Paxton Now

Texas Republicans chose a candidate who embodies something essential about the party under Trump.

TAThe American Conservative21 days ago

Paxton Defeats Cornyn in Texas Primary

The state’s attorney general defeated the incumbent senator following the President’s endorsement last week.

SPSt. Paul Pioneer Press25 days ago

Paxton makes final pitch in Texas US Senate race against Cornyn

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is touting President Trump's endorsement ahead of his Republican primary runoff against Sen. John Cornyn.

Polls

Polling Average

40%30%20%10%0%

30.3%

26.4%

23.7%

J. Letlow

B. Cassidy

J. Fleming

Date (Start - End)	Spread	Letlow	Cassidy	Fleming
Polling Average	Letlow+3.8	30.3%	26.4%	23.7%
Quantus InsightsMay 6 - 7	Letlow+12.0	41.6%	19.6%	29.6%
Fabrizio, Lee & AssociatesMay 4 - 5	Letlow+6.0	32.0%	26.0%	21.0%
BDPCApr 28 - 30	Letlow+11.3	32.5%	20.5%	21.2%
Emerson CollegeApr 24 - 26	Fleming+1.4	26.9%	21.1%	28.3%
American Pulse Research & PollingMar 20 - 24	Letlow+6.0	30.5%	20.5%	24.5%
Harris, DeVille & AssociatesMar 13 - 19	Cassidy+11.0	34.0%	45.0%	21.0%
BDPCMar 16 - 17	Letlow+5.5	29.0%	19.7%	23.5%
Fabrizio, Lee & AssociatesMar 11 - 12	Letlow+1.0	27.0%	26.0%	19.0%
Fabrizio, Lee & AssociatesMar 11 - 12	Letlow+12.0	46.0%	34.0%	–
Public Opinion StrategiesMar 7 - 10	Cassidy+11.0	24.0%	35.0%	21.0%
Cor StrategiesFeb 20 - 24	Cassidy+13.0	15.0%	30.0%	17.0%
Quantus InsightsFeb 23 - 24	Fleming+9.6	24.6%	19.8%	34.2%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Fundraising

Total RaisedCash on Hand

May 12, 2026

$20M

$15M

$10M

$5M

J. Fleming

B. Cassidy

B. Miguez

K. Seiden

J. Emerson

S. Wyatt

E. Skrmetta

Candidate

Total Raised

Cash on Hand

Burn Rate (per month)

Last report

J. FlemingJohn Fleming

$11.25MContrib: $623.9K

$1.39MSpent: $9.88M

$617.5KLast period: $23.1K

PRE-PRIMARY · Apr 26, 2026

B. CassidyBill Cassidy

$6.73MContrib: $4.14M

$5.52MSpent: $7.79M

$487.0KLast period: $168.5K

PRE-PRIMARY · Apr 26, 2026

B. MiguezBlake Miguez

$6.18MContrib: $3.15M

$3.99MSpent: $2.19M

$145.9KLast period: $334.5K

APRIL QUARTERLY · Mar 31, 2026

K. SeidenKathy Seiden

$1.20MContrib: $127.2K

$0Spent: $1.20M

$70.7KLast period: $0

TERMINATION REPORT · May 12, 2026

J. EmersonJulie Emerson

$688.9KContrib: $380.4K

$32.7KSpent: $656.2K

$43.7KLast period: -$104.7K

APRIL QUARTERLY · Mar 31, 2026

S. WyattSammy Wyatt

$288.7KContrib: $103.2K

$4.2KSpent: $284.5K

$19.0KLast period: $6.3K

APRIL QUARTERLY · Mar 31, 2026

E. SkrmettaEric Skrmetta

$67.8KContrib: $67.8K

$58.6KSpent: $9.2K

$612Last period: $67.8K

APRIL QUARTERLY · Mar 31, 2026

Source: FEC

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

Endorsements

Who will win the 2026 Louisiana Senate Republican Primary?

Louisiana Republican Senate nominee?

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