$51.9K
AUG 4, 2026Primary Election
Party selects its nominee.
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Prediction market probabilities from Kalshi, updated as market prices change. Last updated Jun 4, 2026, 10:23 AM UTC.
source: Kalshi
Compare the candidates' live odds and fundraising. Updated .
| Candidate | Live odds | Funds raised |
|---|---|---|
| 99% | $1.69M | |
| 2% | $131.0K | |
| 2% | $179.5K | |
| 1% | — |
Important voting dates, registration deadlines and prediction market closing times.
Recent reporting and announcements directly related to this race and its candidates.
Beth Macy is now the only candidate left in the Virginia 6th District Democratic primary after Ken Mitchell dropped out and endorsed her. Virginia has also started early voting for party primaries after a court rejected a proposed redistricting plan. The nomination contest now appears effectively decided. The nomination looks effectively settled in Macy’s favor, which should sharply reduce uncertainty in this market. The early-voting and redistricting news adds context, but does not appear to change the nomination outlook.
Newsweek analyzed polling, election data and insights from Republican and Democratic strategists to rank key House battlegrounds.
The shifting field of congressional candidates got another shake-up Wednesday when Ken Mitchell announced he is dropping out of the 6th District Democratic primary and throwing his weight behind Beth
Gov. Gavin Newsom scored a three-point political play last year when the Legislature and voters approved a mid-decade reconfiguration of the state’s 52 congressional districts. The gerrymander aimed to shift […]
WASHINGTON — Another month, and another batch of rating changes that benefit Democrats. But the House Republican majority is not lost yet, according to a district-by-district analysis of the House battleground. With less than five months to go, the fundamentals of midterm elections continue to favor Democrats. President Donald Trump’s job rating is underwater at 39% approve and 58% disapprove, ...
Virginia voters are about to go to the polls again, with 45 days of early voting beginning this week in party primaries for the U.S. Senate and the U.S. House of Representatives after a bruising six-month battle over political redistricting that ended with nothing changed.
Michigan will offer the country its clearest gauge yet on the direction of the Democratic Party, as primary voters in the battleground state choose between a progressive standard-bearer and an establishment-backed candidate.
Wisconsin and Minnesota democratic primaries test the progressive vs. moderate battle for the party's future in the midwest after Michigan's far-left Senate win.
Candidates across the Commonwealth are shifting their focus to the general election.
With the candidate filing deadline days away, the Democratic primary field for the 6th Congressional District narrowed further on Thursday.
An unprecedented gerrymandering effort led by Donald Trump—and internal divisions among Democrats—has made the Minority Leader’s path to victory harder than ever, Jason Zengerle reports.
Campaign finance totals for the 2026 cycle, including money raised, spent and cash on hand.
B. MacyBeth Macy
K. MitchellKen Mitchell
P. BarlowPete BarlowSource: FEC
New updates coming soon
We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.
