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Who will win the 2026 Texas District 32 US House Republican Primary?

May 27, 2026, 3:59am UTC, in 5 daysLast updated: May 22, 2026, 10:23 AM UTC

TX-32 Republican nominee?

$39.3K

MAY 27, 2026

Primary Election

Party selects its nominee.

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OddsCurrent Odds

Track how candidate odds have moved across common market windows.

Total volume

$39.3K

24h volume

$100

J. Yarbrough99%

R. Binkley2%

P. Bondar1%

Loading chart data...

source: Kalshi

Upcoming Events

May

TUE 26

Texas 2026 primary runoff, if required

November

TUE 3

Texas 2026 general election

Latest Insights

Jace Yarbrough

24H92%

Jace Yarbrough is now backed by Donald Trump in the TX-32 Republican nominee race, and his current odds are 92%.

14d

Ryan Binkley

24H6%

Ryan Binkley has raised $3,216,172.70 this cycle, but Jace Yarbrough is ahead in the latest odds for the TX-32 Republican nominee race.

25d

News

AINews Summary

Texas primary results have already pushed several House contests into runoffs, including the Dallas-area race involving Colin Allred and Julie Johnson. Separate reporting says Texas Republicans’ redrawn map has made more districts safer and reduced the number of competitive House races. That broader trend may matter for this nomination market, but no direct update on TX-32 is provided. The runoff results and redistricting point to a more favorable Republican environment in Texas House races, but this specific nomination market remains unclear from the provided news. Overall uncertainty is still high.

Articles

TDThe Dallas Morning News3 days ago

Demcorats Colin Allred, Julie Johnson clash in critical runoff

Once allies, Colin Allred and Julie Johnson are working community events, gyms and taquerias in a battle for a safe Democratic seat in Congress.

ADAnchorage Daily News3 months ago

Early primaries in Texas and North Carolina show incumbents are on shaky ground in midterms

The first round of primary elections is showing how this year’s midterms will be taking place on shifting political ground for incumbents.

CCNBC3 months ago

Texas Reps. Menefee, Green advance to runoff as first midterm primaries show incumbents on shaky ground

Democratic Rep. Al Green and newly elected Rep. Christian Menefee will compete in the May 26 runoff for a Houston-area district.

RReuters19 days ago

How redistricting and the Supreme Court have cut voters out of US House races

The lack of competitive races means that control of the House of Representatives will likely be determined in November's midterm election by fewer than 10% of Americans, with the winners in most districts all but assured before a single ballot is cast.

Endorsements

Jace Yarbrough

Eagle Forum

Texas Farm Bureau Friends of Agriculture Fund (AGFUND) endorsed Jace Yarbrough.

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Texas Eagle Forum

Texas Eagle Forum endorsed Jace Yarbrough.

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Texas Home School Coalition Association

Texas Home School Coalition Association endorsed Jace Yarbrough.

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Texas Right to Life Committee

Texas Right to Life Committee endorsed Jace Yarbrough.

Learn more

Fundraising

Total RaisedCash on Hand

Jun 30, 2026

$5M

$3.8M

$2.5M

$1.3M

R. Binkley

P. Bondar

J. Yarbrough

A. Vaziri

D. Day

M. Montanez

A. Carrasco

G. Heslop

Candidate

Total Raised

Cash on Hand

Burn Rate (per month)

Last report

R. BinkleyRyan Binkley

$3.22MContrib: $461.7K

$152.0KSpent: $3.06M

$204.3KLast period: -$30.1K

APRIL QUARTERLY · Mar 31, 2026

P. BondarPaul Bondar

$3.20MContrib: $17.0K

$283.3KSpent: $2.92M

$194.6KLast period: -$1.2K

APRIL QUARTERLY · Mar 31, 2026

J. YarbroughJace Yarbrough

$612.5KContrib: $405.5K

$86.1KSpent: $526.4K

$35.1KLast period: $186.9K

APRIL QUARTERLY · Mar 31, 2026

A. VaziriAbteen Vaziri

$120.4KContrib: $117.2K

—Spent: $144.3K

$9.6KLast period: $56.8K

APRIL QUARTERLY · Mar 31, 2026

D. DayDarrel Day

$102.1KContrib: $39.0K

$133.8KSpent: $57.6K

$4.1KLast period: $7.3K

PRE-PRIMARY · Feb 11, 2026

M. MontanezMonty Montanez

$46.1KContrib: $21.3K

—Spent: $46.9K

$3.1KLast period: $1.8K

APRIL QUARTERLY · Mar 31, 2026

A. CarrascoAimee Carrasco

$34.6KContrib: $1.6K

$0Spent: $34.6K

$1.9KLast period: $0

TERMINATION REPORT · Jun 30, 2026

G. HeslopGordon Heslop

$32.6KContrib: $500

$801Spent: $29.5K

$2.0KLast period: $500

APRIL QUARTERLY · Mar 31, 2026

Source: FEC

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

Polls

Who will win the 2026 Texas District 32 US House Republican Primary?

TX-32 Republican nominee?

OddsCurrent Odds

Upcoming Events

Latest Insights

Jace Yarbrough

Ryan Binkley

News

Demcorats Colin Allred, Julie Johnson clash in critical runoff

Early primaries in Texas and North Carolina show incumbents are on shaky ground in midterms

Texas Reps. Menefee, Green advance to runoff as first midterm primaries show incumbents on shaky ground

How redistricting and the Supreme Court have cut voters out of US House races

Endorsements

Fundraising

Related races

Texas Republican Senate nominee?

Texas Senate winner?

TX-33 Democratic nominee?

Texas Republican Attorney General nominee?

Upcoming Events

Latest Insights

Jace Yarbrough

Ryan Binkley

News

Demcorats Colin Allred, Julie Johnson clash in critical runoff

Early primaries in Texas and North Carolina show incumbents are on shaky ground in midterms

Texas Reps. Menefee, Green advance to runoff as first midterm primaries show incumbents on shaky ground

How redistricting and the Supreme Court have cut voters out of US House races

Endorsements

Fundraising

Related races

Texas Republican Senate nominee?

Texas Senate winner?

TX-33 Democratic nominee?

Texas Republican Attorney General nominee?