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$12.9M
MAY 27, 2026Primary Election
Party selects its nominee.
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Track how candidate odds have moved across common market windows.
source: Kalshi
Ken Paxton’s Texas GOP Senate-nomination price has eased to 56% from 61.5% a week ago even as reporting continues to center on the same UH runoff poll and Trump-endorsement uncertainty, suggesting traders are starting to price in a slightly less decisive Paxton edge ahead of the May 26 vote.
A fresh University of Houston poll has Paxton ahead 48% to 45% in the Texas GOP Senate runoff, reinforcing his narrow market lead and keeping the race in a tight, tradable range ahead of May 26.
A new University of Houston poll puts Ken Paxton narrowly ahead of John Cornyn (48% to 45%) heading into the May 26 Texas GOP Senate runoff, with 7% undecided. Reporting also spotlights scrutiny of Cornyn over past praise of Islamic Relief USA as the candidates compete on national-security messaging. The new poll slightly favors Paxton, which could nudge his odds up, but the small margin and undecided share keep the market relatively uncertain. Negative attention on Cornyn could add modest headwinds, though impact is unclear.
The NRCC’s polling of the battleground districts shows Republicans are competitive in five Democrat-held districts that Trump won in 2024.
The GOP’s House campaign arm shared five new battleground polls with POLITICO, its first publicly released surveys this cycle.
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton’s history of adultery was brought up in a new ad from Sen. John Cornyn’s campaign amid their Senate GOP primary battle.
Three Australian women were refused bail when they appeared in courts on Friday charged with slavery and terrorism offenses after they arrived home from Sy
The poll shows both candidates holding most of their March support, with 95% of Paxton voters and 91% of Cornyn voters planning to stick with their original choice in the May 26 runoff.
A new poll shows Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton leading Sen. John Cornyn in the GOP primary runoff for U.S. Senate weeks before the election.
So far, his chosen candidates in several May primaries are struggling to dominate their fields.
Tennessee lawmakers have passed a new U.S. House map that carves up a majority-Black district in Memphis. The new voting districts approved Thursday could give Republicans a chance to win all nine of the state’s congressional seats in the November midterm elections.
A new poll from the University of Houston shows Ken Paxton leading John Cornyn by three-point margin, with a +/- 2.83% margin of error.
Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne
J. CornynJohn CornynK. PaxtonKen Paxton
B. DuyneBeth Van DuyneSource: FEC
