$3.3K
NOV 7, 2026
General Election
Voters choose the office holder.
Track how candidate odds have moved across common market windows.
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source: Kalshi
Recent polling shows Thomas Massie trailing Trump-backed challenger Ed Gallrein in the Kentucky 4th District Republican primary. Gallrein has also picked up momentum and outside support, including a campaign appearance by Pete Hegseth. The race remains a close, high-spending test of Trump’s influence in the GOP primary. The news appears to strengthen Gallrein’s position in the GOP primary, though the effect on the general-election party market is limited because the district is described as safely Republican. It mainly adds uncertainty about which Republican nominee will emerge.
The Kentucky primary pits Massie, one of the most conservative members of Congress, against Trump and many wealthy donors.
By JONATHAN J. COOPER and STEVE PEOPLES WASHINGTON (AP) — Is there a future in politics for Republicans who cross President Donald Trump? The signs this year suggest no, and Trump has convinced his voters to defeat his adversaries again and again. The next test of the president’s power to extract retribution is on Tuesday, […]
The Kentucky Republican's chances of winning his primary against a Trump-backed challenger have slipped sharply on prediction markets.
President Donald Trump is trying to oust one of his own party’s most independent voices: Kentucky Congressman Thomas Massie.
President Donald Trump and allies target Sen. Bill Cassidy and Rep. Thomas Massie in upcoming GOP primaries after Trump-backed challengers won five Indiana state Senate races.
COVINGTON, Ky. (AP) — Rep. Thomas Massie was stuck in Washington for a vote on Capitol Hill, so one of his supporters made the pitch for his campaign in a banquet hall packed with Republicans in northern Kentucky.
Six states are holding primaries May 19 that could help to decide the balance of power in Congress and in key state governments.
Pete Hegseth stumped for Ed Gallrein in Kentucky on May 18, less than 24 hours before polls opened for the state's primary election.
So far, his chosen candidates in several May primaries are struggling to dominate their fields.
New updates coming soon
We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.
