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MAY 27, 2026Primary Election
Party selects its nominee.
Track how candidate odds have moved across common market windows.
source: Kalshi
Johnny Garcia’s hold on the TX-35 Democratic runoff has firmed with Greg Casar’s endorsement, while Maureen Galindo remains under fresh scrutiny over antisemitic remarks. The market has already repriced sharply, so this keeps the runoff highly tradable ahead of the May 26 vote.
Maureen Galindo’s chance of winning the TX-35 Democratic nomination has jumped back to 37%, with Johnny Garcia falling to 61% as fresh reporting keeps the antisemitism backlash and endorsement fight in focus. That matters because the runoff is still being repriced quickly ahead of the May 26 vote.
Maureen Galindo’s odds have jumped back to 37% after recent reporting on antisemitic remarks and a former primary rival withdrawing his endorsement. That keeps TX-35’s Democratic runoff highly tradable, with the market still repricing around negative coverage and outside support for Johnny Garcia.
Maureen Galindo led Johnny Garcia by 2.2 points in the Democratic primary, but the nomination is still headed to a runoff/general election process. Galindo has also faced backlash over repeated antisemitic remarks. The district is described as likely Republican, which could limit the eventual nominee’s chances. Galindo’s primary lead makes her the current frontrunner for the nomination, but the runoff keeps some uncertainty in the market. The likely Republican lean of the district limits the broader general-election outlook for either Democrat.
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J. GarciaJohnny Garcia
J. LiraJohn Lira
W. Masterson-MoyesWhitney Masterson-Moyes
M. GalindoMaureen GalindoSource: FEC
New updates coming soon
We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.
