$4.2K
NOV 7, 2026
General Election
Voters choose the office holder.
Track how candidate odds have moved across common market windows.
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source: Kalshi
The court’s ruling revives uncertainty around Virginia’s 2026 House map, and the Republican VA-11 win contract is still trading near a low-probability but much higher level than earlier this week. That kind of absolute repricing can matter for traders even in a Democratic-leaning seat.
Virginia’s Supreme Court ruling has renewed uncertainty around the district map, and the Republican House win contract in VA-11 has moved from 10% to 10% over 24 hours. Even in a Democratic-leaning seat, that’s a meaningful absolute repricing traders may want to watch.
The Republican House win contract for Virginia’s 11th district moved from 3% yesterday to 10% now, a sharp absolute uptick in a still-longshot market. With fresh reporting focused on Virginia redistricting and the district already in the spotlight, the move is trader-relevant even though the seat remains Democratic-leaning.
Virginia’s redistricting fight is the main development affecting this race. Voters approved a mid-decade map, but a judge froze it, leaving the final district lines unsettled. Broader redistricting changes in other states could also shape the House landscape. The Virginia map fight adds uncertainty around the district’s 2026 partisan outlook. If the new maps survive, they could improve Democratic prospects; if not, the current balance may hold.
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Redistricting across the US has turned into all-out war between the Democrats and Republicans ahead of the 2026 midterm elections in November — but the GOP is potentially poised to flip more than a dozen seats.
Five Florida U.S. House seats represented by Democrats show dramatic shifts to the GOP based on the 2024 presidential election results.
The Supreme Court rule 6-3 in a decision that has implications for the scope of the landmark Voting Rights Act.
Four consequential April elections in Georgia, Wisconsin, New Jersey and Virginia could shape House majority control ahead of November's midterm elections.
This week, Julie and Mike spar over war credibility, chaos at the Pentagon, redistricting fights, bad behavior on Capitol Hill and where New Jersey politics fit into a rapidly destabilizing national picture.
Get live updates and the latest news on the Trump administration as RFK Jr. faces more questions from lawmakers and progressive activist Analilia Mejia wins the special election to fill New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill’s former House seat.
The committee is also investigating Rep. Chuck Edwards for allegations of creating a toxic work environment.
Democrats consider dozens of seats "in play" this November, and aim to leverage the domestic fallout from Trump's war in Iran.
New updates coming soon
We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.