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2026 Massachusetts Democratic Senate Primary Polls, Odds & Candidates

Name: 2026 Massachusetts Democratic Senate Primary Polls, Odds & Candidates — prediction market odds
Creator: kalshi

Primary Day: Sep 1, 2026Market closes: Sep 15, 11:59pm ET (Sep 16, 3:59am UTC)

Massachusetts Democratic Senate nominee?

$420.0K

SEP 1, 2026

Primary Election

Party selects its nominee.

Deposit $20, get $50 on Polymarket

Race Snapshot

Compare the candidates' live odds, polling averages and fundraising. Updated Aug 12, 2026, 6:38 PM UTC.

Candidate	Live odds	Poll average	Funds raised
Ed Markey	83%	—	$4.85M
Seth Moulton	17%	—	—
Alexander Rikleen	1%	5.5%	$79.3K
Ayanna Pressley	1%	22.5%	$914.5K

OddsLive Odds

Prediction market probabilities from Kalshi, updated as market prices change. Last updated Aug 12, 2026, 6:38 PM UTC.

Odds History

Total volume

$420.0K

24h volume

$67.7K

E. Markey83%

S. Moulton17%

A. Rikleen1%

No chart data available yet.

source: Kalshi

Election Dates and Deadlines

Important voting dates, registration deadlines and prediction market closing times.

September

TUE 1

Massachusetts 2026 primary

September

TUE 15

Prediction market closes

November

TUE 3

Massachusetts 2026 general election

Latest Race Updates

Key developments affecting the candidates, polls and prediction market odds.

Massachusetts Democratic Senate nominee?

20h

Markey’s share in the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary has climbed from 73% to 86% over the past day, extending the post-debate repricing as Moulton falls to 11%.

86%13%

Latest Election News

Recent reporting and announcements directly related to this race and its candidates.

AINews Summary

Ed Markey has the biggest recent boost after winning the state party’s nominating convention. He also led Seth Moulton in cited polling and the two debated in western Massachusetts. The Sept. 1 primary remains the main test for the nomination. Markey’s convention win and reported polling lead likely strengthen his position in the nomination market. The race is still active, but the latest coverage points to a modest Markey advantage.

Articles

PTPittsburgh Tribune-Review1 day ago

Joe Battenfeld: Far-left El-Sayed could haunt Democrats

The narrower than expected victory by the far left Democratic Senate candidate in Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed, could backfire on the party in November. El-Sayed barely staved off the establishment Democrat by less than one percentage point — just 15,000 votes — despite polls which showed him leading by double digits.

CNCable News Network14 hours ago

Another Democratic nail-biter in Wisconsin and other takeaways from Tuesday’s primaries

The Democratic primary for governor in Wisconsin was neck-and-neck early Wednesday morning, with democratic socialist state lawmaker Francesca Hong and moderate Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley separated by less than a percentage point.

SSFGATE2 days ago

AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Minnesota’s state primary

Minnesota Democrats will decide a competitive U.S. Senate primary Tuesday in another face-off between moderate and progressive candidates that could define the party’s identity heading into the...

NBNBC10 Boston9 days ago

Moulton and Markey spar in Democratic primary debate

Rep. Seth Moulton, challenging Sen. Ed Markey for his seat, questioned the incumbent about his name appearing in the Epstein files, a move Markey called...

MMassLive9 days ago

Rep. Pressley barnstormed Michigan ahead of key US Senate primary. Why the race matters to Mass.

U.S. Rep. Ayanna Pressley spent the weekend in Michigan, where a pivotal U.S. Senate primary previews a Democratic battles brewing in Massachusetts.

TNThe New York Times2 months ago

Josh Turek and Zachary Wahls Make Final Pitches in Senate Primary

Josh Turek and Zach Wahls, the Democratic candidates for U.S. Senate, made their final pitches as voters took to the polls on Tuesday.

TBThe Boston Globe3 months ago

Senate race may be 'closer than people think'

This year’s US Senate primary has largely hummed to at a lower wattage despite some signs it’s starting to heat up.

BBoston.com7 days ago

Moulton doubles down on Epstein-related attacks on Markey

Sen. Ed Markey, who called for the release of the Epstein files, has adamantly denied ever knowing or working with the notorious sex offender.

QPQuincy Patriot Ledger9 days ago

How to watch Senate candidates Markey and Moulton in second debate

Less than a month before the Democratic primary election, incumbent Senator Ed Markey and challenger Rep. Seth Moulton are set to face off in second debate.

TBThe Boston Herald1 month ago

Markey, Moulton face off in western Massachusetts primary debate

Sen. Ed Markey and Rep. Seth Moulton faced off in a western Massachusetts primary debate, covering everything from Markey’s age and Moulton’s stance on trans athletes to Trump and regional issues.

Latest Polls

Polling results and averages based on polls published between Oct 21, 2025 and Oct 29, 2025.

Polling Average

25%20%15%10%5%0%

22.5%

5.5%

A. Pressley

A. Rikleen

Date (Start - End)	Spread	Pressley	Rikleen
Polling Average	Pressley+17.0	22.5%	5.5%
University of Massachusetts Department of Political Science/YouGovOct 21 - 29	Pressley+16.0	21.0%	5.0%
University of Massachusetts Department of Political Science/YouGovOct 21 - 29	Pressley+18.0	24.0%	6.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Campaign Fundraising

Campaign finance totals for the 2026 cycle, including money raised, spent and cash on hand.

Total RaisedCash on Hand

Jun 30, 2026

$5M

$3.8M

$2.5M

$1.3M

E. Markey

A. Pressley

A. Rikleen

Candidate

Total Raised

Cash on Hand

Burn Rate (per month)

Last report

E. MarkeyEd Markey

$4.85MContrib: $2.67M

$2.23MSpent: $4.43M

$246.2KLast period: $465.8K

JULY QUARTERLY · Jun 30, 2026

A. PressleyAyanna Pressley

$914.5KContrib: $812.6K

$138.1KSpent: $894.6K

$59.6KLast period: $204.9K

APRIL QUARTERLY · Mar 31, 2026

A. RikleenAlexander Rikleen

$79.3KContrib: $55.4K

$2.0KSpent: $77.3K

$4.3KLast period: $3.6K

JULY QUARTERLY · Jun 30, 2026

Source: FEC

2026 Massachusetts Democratic Senate Primary Polls, Odds & Candidates

Massachusetts Democratic Senate nominee?

Race Snapshot

OddsLive Odds

Odds History

Election Dates and Deadlines

Latest Race Updates

Massachusetts Democratic Senate nominee?

Latest Election News

Joe Battenfeld: Far-left El-Sayed could haunt Democrats

Another Democratic nail-biter in Wisconsin and other takeaways from Tuesday’s primaries

AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Minnesota’s state primary

Moulton and Markey spar in Democratic primary debate

Rep. Pressley barnstormed Michigan ahead of key US Senate primary. Why the race matters to Mass.

Josh Turek and Zachary Wahls Make Final Pitches in Senate Primary

Senate race may be 'closer than people think'

Moulton doubles down on Epstein-related attacks on Markey

How to watch Senate candidates Markey and Moulton in second debate

Markey, Moulton face off in western Massachusetts primary debate

Latest Polls

Candidate Endorsements

Campaign Fundraising

Race Snapshot

Election Dates and Deadlines

Latest Race Updates

Massachusetts Democratic Senate nominee?

Latest Election News

Joe Battenfeld: Far-left El-Sayed could haunt Democrats

Another Democratic nail-biter in Wisconsin and other takeaways from Tuesday’s primaries

AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Minnesota’s state primary

Moulton and Markey spar in Democratic primary debate

Rep. Pressley barnstormed Michigan ahead of key US Senate primary. Why the race matters to Mass.

Josh Turek and Zachary Wahls Make Final Pitches in Senate Primary

Senate race may be 'closer than people think'

Moulton doubles down on Epstein-related attacks on Markey

How to watch Senate candidates Markey and Moulton in second debate

Markey, Moulton face off in western Massachusetts primary debate

Latest Polls

Candidate Endorsements

Campaign Fundraising

2026 Massachusetts Democratic Senate Primary Polls, Odds & Candidates

Massachusetts Democratic Senate nominee?

Race Snapshot

OddsLive Odds

Odds History

Election Dates and Deadlines

Latest Race Updates

Massachusetts Democratic Senate nominee?

Latest Election News

Joe Battenfeld: Far-left El-Sayed could haunt Democrats

Another Democratic nail-biter in Wisconsin and other takeaways from Tuesday’s primaries

AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Minnesota’s state primary

Moulton and Markey spar in Democratic primary debate

Rep. Pressley barnstormed Michigan ahead of key US Senate primary. Why the race matters to Mass.

Josh Turek and Zachary Wahls Make Final Pitches in Senate Primary

Senate race may be 'closer than people think'

Moulton doubles down on Epstein-related attacks on Markey

How to watch Senate candidates Markey and Moulton in second debate

Markey, Moulton face off in western Massachusetts primary debate

Latest Polls

Candidate Endorsements

Campaign Fundraising

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Race Snapshot

Election Dates and Deadlines

Latest Race Updates

Massachusetts Democratic Senate nominee?

Latest Election News

Joe Battenfeld: Far-left El-Sayed could haunt Democrats

Another Democratic nail-biter in Wisconsin and other takeaways from Tuesday’s primaries

AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Minnesota’s state primary

Moulton and Markey spar in Democratic primary debate

Rep. Pressley barnstormed Michigan ahead of key US Senate primary. Why the race matters to Mass.

Josh Turek and Zachary Wahls Make Final Pitches in Senate Primary

Senate race may be 'closer than people think'

Moulton doubles down on Epstein-related attacks on Markey

How to watch Senate candidates Markey and Moulton in second debate

Markey, Moulton face off in western Massachusetts primary debate

Latest Polls

Candidate Endorsements

Campaign Fundraising

Related Races

Massachusetts Governor winner?

MA-01 Democratic nominee?

Massachusetts Republican Governor nominee?

MA-04 Democratic nominee?