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2026 Massachusetts Republican Governor Primary Polls, Odds & Candidates

Name: 2026 Massachusetts Republican Governor Primary Polls, Odds & Candidates — prediction market odds
Creator: kalshi

Primary Day: Sep 1, 2026Market closes: Sep 15, 11:59pm ET (Sep 16, 3:59am UTC)

Massachusetts Republican Governor nominee?

$46.6K

SEP 1, 2026

Primary Election

Party selects its nominee.

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Race Snapshot

Compare the candidates' live odds and polling averages. Updated Aug 12, 2026, 6:23 PM UTC.

Candidate	Live odds	Poll average
Michael Minogue	99%	27.9%
Brian Shortsleeve	5%	18.3%
Mike Kennealy	1%	21.5%
Bruce Tarr	1%	—

OddsLive Odds

Prediction market probabilities from Kalshi, updated as market prices change. Last updated Aug 12, 2026, 6:23 PM UTC.

Odds History

Total volume

$46.6K

24h volume

M. Minogue99%

B. Shortsleeve5%

M. Kennealy1%

No chart data available yet.

source: Kalshi

Election Dates and Deadlines

Important voting dates, registration deadlines and prediction market closing times.

September

TUE 1

Massachusetts 2026 primary

September

TUE 15

Prediction market closes

November

TUE 3

Massachusetts 2026 general election

Latest Election News

Recent reporting and announcements directly related to this race and its candidates.

AINews Summary

Mike Minogue has poured $13.5 million of his own money into his Massachusetts GOP governor campaign and recently won the state party endorsement. No new nominee result is reported, but the fundraising gap may be shaping the primary field. Minogue’s large self-funding and party endorsement likely strengthen his standing in the GOP field. That could make him a clearer market favorite, though the race remains unsettled.

Articles

PTPittsburgh Tribune-Review1 day ago

Joe Battenfeld: Far-left El-Sayed could haunt Democrats

The narrower than expected victory by the far left Democratic Senate candidate in Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed, could backfire on the party in November. El-Sayed barely staved off the establishment Democrat by less than one percentage point — just 15,000 votes — despite polls which showed him leading by double digits.

CNCable News Network14 hours ago

Another Democratic nail-biter in Wisconsin and other takeaways from Tuesday’s primaries

The Democratic primary for governor in Wisconsin was neck-and-neck early Wednesday morning, with democratic socialist state lawmaker Francesca Hong and moderate Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley separated by less than a percentage point.

SSFGATE2 days ago

AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Minnesota’s state primary

Minnesota Democrats will decide a competitive U.S. Senate primary Tuesday in another face-off between moderate and progressive candidates that could define the party’s identity heading into the...

MMassLive2 days ago

Mike Minogue launches affordability ad campaign ahead of Mass. GOP governor primary

Republican Mike Minogue puts at the center of his latest ad, arguing rising costs and a sluggish economy are squeezing Bay State families.

UTUSA TODAY4 months ago

Latest data from Analilia Mejia's District 11 win

Progressive Democrat Analilia Mejia is headed to Washington.

NNewsweek2 months ago

Cait Conley’s Chances of Beating Mike Lawler to Flip GOP-Held Seat in NY

Conley secured the Democratic nomination to face off against Lawler in one of the most competitive races of the 2026 midterms.

WEWashington Examiner2 months ago

Republicans select slate against New York congressional Democrats

Republicans hold few competitive seats in New York, which makes each district a possibly critical pickup to expand the slim House majority.

BBoston.com2 months ago

Raman advances to runoff against Los Angeles Mayor Bass

Progressive city council member Nithya Raman has advanced to a November runoff against Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass.

TAThe Associated Press2 months ago

Nithya Raman advances to November runoff against Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass

Progressive city council member Nithya Raman has advanced to a November runoff against Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass, setting up an unexpected matchup between two Democrats and former political allies to run the struggling city of nearly 4 million.

WCWDIV ClickOnDetroit2 months ago

Progressive Nithya Raman advances to November runoff against Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass

Latest Polls

Polling results and averages based on polls published between Sep 17, 2025 and Jun 23, 2026.

Polling Average

40%30%20%10%0%

27.9%

21.5%

18.3%

M. Minogue

M. Kennealy

B. Shortsleeve

Date (Start - End)	Spread	Minogue	Kennealy	Shortsleeve
Polling Average	Minogue+6.4	27.9%	21.5%	18.3%
University of New Hampshire Survey CenterJun 18 - 23	Minogue+31.0	46.0%	–	15.0%
Suffolk UniversityMay 25 - 28	Minogue+31.8	45.0%	–	13.1%
Pulse Decision ScienceFeb 23 - 24	Minogue+13.0	29.0%	7.0%	16.0%
Suffolk UniversityNov 19 - 23	Shortsleeve+8.6	6.5%	12.9%	21.5%
University of Massachusetts Department of Political Science/YouGovOct 21 - 29	Kennealy+31.0	13.0%	44.0%	13.0%
University of New Hampshire Survey CenterSep 17 - 23	Shortsleeve+9.0	–	22.0%	31.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

Fundraising

2026 Massachusetts Republican Governor Primary Polls, Odds & Candidates

Massachusetts Republican Governor nominee?

Race Snapshot

OddsLive Odds

Odds History

Election Dates and Deadlines

Latest Election News

Joe Battenfeld: Far-left El-Sayed could haunt Democrats

Another Democratic nail-biter in Wisconsin and other takeaways from Tuesday’s primaries

AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Minnesota’s state primary

Mike Minogue launches affordability ad campaign ahead of Mass. GOP governor primary

Latest data from Analilia Mejia's District 11 win

Cait Conley’s Chances of Beating Mike Lawler to Flip GOP-Held Seat in NY

Republicans select slate against New York congressional Democrats

Raman advances to runoff against Los Angeles Mayor Bass

Nithya Raman advances to November runoff against Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass

Progressive Nithya Raman advances to November runoff against Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass

Latest Polls

Candidate Endorsements

Race Snapshot

Election Dates and Deadlines

Latest Election News

Joe Battenfeld: Far-left El-Sayed could haunt Democrats

Another Democratic nail-biter in Wisconsin and other takeaways from Tuesday’s primaries

AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Minnesota’s state primary

Mike Minogue launches affordability ad campaign ahead of Mass. GOP governor primary

Latest data from Analilia Mejia's District 11 win

Cait Conley’s Chances of Beating Mike Lawler to Flip GOP-Held Seat in NY

Republicans select slate against New York congressional Democrats

Raman advances to runoff against Los Angeles Mayor Bass

Nithya Raman advances to November runoff against Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass

Progressive Nithya Raman advances to November runoff against Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass

Latest Polls

Candidate Endorsements

2026 Massachusetts Republican Governor Primary Polls, Odds & Candidates

Massachusetts Republican Governor nominee?

Race Snapshot

OddsLive Odds

Odds History

Election Dates and Deadlines

Latest Election News

Joe Battenfeld: Far-left El-Sayed could haunt Democrats

Another Democratic nail-biter in Wisconsin and other takeaways from Tuesday’s primaries

AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Minnesota’s state primary

Mike Minogue launches affordability ad campaign ahead of Mass. GOP governor primary

Latest data from Analilia Mejia's District 11 win

Cait Conley’s Chances of Beating Mike Lawler to Flip GOP-Held Seat in NY

Republicans select slate against New York congressional Democrats

Raman advances to runoff against Los Angeles Mayor Bass

Nithya Raman advances to November runoff against Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass

Progressive Nithya Raman advances to November runoff against Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass

Latest Polls

Candidate Endorsements

Related Races

Massachusetts Democratic Senate nominee?

Massachusetts Governor winner?

MA-01 Democratic nominee?

MA-04 Democratic nominee?

Race Snapshot

Election Dates and Deadlines

Latest Election News

Joe Battenfeld: Far-left El-Sayed could haunt Democrats

Another Democratic nail-biter in Wisconsin and other takeaways from Tuesday’s primaries

AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Minnesota’s state primary

Mike Minogue launches affordability ad campaign ahead of Mass. GOP governor primary

Latest data from Analilia Mejia's District 11 win

Cait Conley’s Chances of Beating Mike Lawler to Flip GOP-Held Seat in NY

Republicans select slate against New York congressional Democrats

Raman advances to runoff against Los Angeles Mayor Bass

Nithya Raman advances to November runoff against Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass

Progressive Nithya Raman advances to November runoff against Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass

Latest Polls

Candidate Endorsements

Related Races

Massachusetts Democratic Senate nominee?

Massachusetts Governor winner?

MA-01 Democratic nominee?

MA-04 Democratic nominee?