State Lean
Lean Republican
Battleground watch
ClosedGeneral Election
2026 Texas Governor Election Polls, Odds & Candidates
Election Day: Recorded market close:
Texas Governor winner?
$19.4M
NOV 3, 2026
General Election
Voters choose the office holder.
Race Snapshot
Compare the candidates' saved odds. Updated .
| Candidate | Saved odds |
|---|---|
| 67% | |
| 34% |
OddsSaved odds
Prices saved with this edition; no automatic updates.
Odds History
Total volume
$19.4M
24h volume
$4.8M
source: Kalshi
Politics IQ
Structural race context from reviewed jurisdiction data
Texas · Governor
Lean RepublicanBattleground watchRunoff possible
Primary System
Party primary with runoff
Runoff possible: May 26, 2026
Election Rules
Primary Mar 3, 2026
Runoff: May 26, 2026
General: Nov 3, 2026
Early voting
Early voting generally begins on the 17th day before Election Day and ends on the fourth day before Election Day.
Sources reviewed May 2, 2026 · National Governors Association, Gubernatorial Elections · NCSL · Vote.org · Manual editorial review
Election Dates and Deadlines
Important voting dates, registration deadlines and prediction market closing times.
Latest Election News
Recent reporting and announcements directly related to this race and its candidates.
AINews Summary
Texas Democrats have their nominee in James Talarico, and Republicans have now settled on Ken Paxton after a runoff. Earlier coverage pointed to a tight general election and weak ratings for both GOP contenders. A Dallas convention also showed Republicans leaning on Trump to energize the base. The Texas news keeps the Senate race competitive and may reinforce concerns about Republican weakness in the state. The Trump-heavy GOP events could help Paxton’s base, but the overall signal remains mixed.
Articles
SSlate2 days ago
This Wasn’t Supposed to Be Senate Democrats’ Year. Here’s What Changed.
The party is in the midst of a remarkable comeback—mostly thanks to one man.
UTUSA TODAY1 day ago
What early voting data tell us about the 2026 midterm elections
Approximately 54 million Americans have offered a glimpse into the midterm election, which is seeing an uptick in younger and racially diverse voters.
CCNBC1 day ago
Texas governor race tightens in prediction market, but GOP is favored
Prediction markets still show the Republican incumbent favored to win a fourth term, but the odds have narrowed in recent weeks.
UTUSA TODAY2 days ago
Trump bet on riskier candidates. Will it cost Republicans seats?
The president often picked more loyal but polarizing contenders during the 2026 primary season, now some of them are behind in the polls.
FNFox News2 days ago
Control of Congress hangs in balance across 9 midterm battlegrounds
Control of Congress hangs in the balance as midterm election voters in nine battleground states decide key Senate, House and governor races during Donald Trump's second term.
CCCincinnati Cincinnati Enquirer2 days ago
Jon Husted, Sherrod Brown on key issues in Ohio Senate race
Before you vote in Ohio’s Senate race, see where the candidates stand on issues shaping the state.
ADAnchorage Daily News2 days ago
Hilcorp owner donates to governor candidate Bernadette Wilson in final week of campaigning
Wilson and the other two Republicans in the race have opposed the possibility of expanding Alaska’s corporate income tax to apply to companies like Hilcorp that don’t currently pay it.
F4FOX 4 News1 day ago
How to watch the election live in Dallas-Fort Worth
Tuesday is election day and you’ll be able to watch live 2026 midterm election coverage from FOX 4 News and FOX Local throughout the day.
NNewsBreak1 day ago
Midterm elections live updates: Trump says he'll become 'Mr. Veto' if Dems gain control of Congress
President Donald Trump is scheduled to appear at the Reflecting Pool on Monday. The high-stakes midterm elections are a day away, and candidates are making
DDeadline22 hours ago
The Key 2026 Midterm Races Hollywood Is Watching
Donors have only recently gotten more active after a period of Democratic fatigue from bruising 2024 losses.
Saved Kalshi settlement results
These are market contract results, not election calls or vote totals. News, polls, prices and charts remain as captured.
Observation saved Nov 4, 2026, 11:35 AM UTC. No automatic updates.
Texas Governor winner?
All preserved contracts have verified final results.
Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Texas
Final: Yes
Settled Nov 4, 2026, 4:25 AM UTC
Will the Republican party win the governorship in Texas
Final: No
Settled Nov 4, 2026, 4:25 AM UTC