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JUL 22, 2026Primary Election
Party selects its nominee.
Track how candidate odds have moved across common market windows.
source: Kalshi
Petersen’s Republican nomination market bounced back after a sharp dip, keeping him the clear favorite in a race that recent Arizona coverage still frames around his role as Senate president and leading GOP figure. That makes the move trader-relevant even if the latest reporting is more contextual than candidate-specific.
Petersen’s Republican nominee market rose sharply on the day to 64%, while recent Arizona coverage keeps him positioned as the main contender in the GOP primary. That makes the nomination race look more concentrated around Petersen than it did earlier this week.
The biggest new development is the RNC’s multimillion-dollar election integrity push, including Arizona, ahead of the 2026 midterms. Separately, Republicans are rallying around Andy Biggs in Arizona politics, but Trump stopped short of formal endorsements in state primaries. The news points to stronger GOP organizing, though it does not directly settle the nomination race. The RNC effort may boost Republican turnout and election-day organization, which could modestly help GOP prospects. The Biggs rally suggests continued Republican consolidation in Arizona, though the direct effect on this nomination market is unclear.
The RNC is hiring election integrity directors in 17 battleground states ahead of the 2026 midterms, launching a multimillion-dollar push to recruit poll workers and watchers.
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California’s “jungle,” primary, originally designed to reduce partisan gridlock, has increasingly created headaches for both parties.
Maine Gov. Janet Mills announced Thursday morning that she is suspending her candidacy for U.S. Senate.
Records show the unprecedented taking of 650,000 ballots was based on thin evidence, raising alarms over how the November election could be disrupted.
President Donald Trump rallied Arizona’s conservatives in Phoenix on Friday with less than 100 days to go before several Republican hopefuls battle it out in the state’s primary election.
Despite the most recent success of its economy, the next government will need to work hard to unpack the current fiscal situation and compete against other markets in the Americas in order to continue attracting future investments.
Arizona Democrat Ruben Gallego announced that he was backing Platner, saying that the first-time candidate “reflects the grit and independence that defines Maine.”
New updates coming soon
We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.
