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Who will win the 2026 Arizona District 5 US House Republican Primary?

Jul 22, 2026, 3:59am UTC, in 36 daysLast updated: Jun 16, 2026, 7:53 PM UTC

AZ-05 Republican nominee?

$47.1K

JUL 22, 2026

Primary Election

Party selects its nominee.

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OddsCurrent Odds

Track how candidate odds have moved across common market windows.

Total volume

$47.1K

24h volume

$1.1K

M. Lamb61%

D. Keenan47%

T. Grantham0%

Loading chart data...

source: Kalshi

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July

TUE 21

Arizona 2026 primary

November

TUE 3

Arizona 2026 general election

Latest Insights

AZ-05 Republican nominee?

14h

Keenan’s odds slipped to 49% after recent coverage of Mark Lamb’s campaign scrutiny and continued contested-primary reporting, keeping this open-seat race highly tradable.

49%0%

AZ-05 Republican nominee?

Mark Lamb is now at 57%, ahead by 8.0 points after trailing earlier.

57%

News

AINews Summary

The biggest development is new scrutiny on Mark Lamb after reported text messages from 2016. That has kept the Republican nomination race in focus, with Daniel Keenan continuing to attack him. Democrats in the district held a debate, but the GOP primary remains the main market driver. The Lamb reports likely add uncertainty around the Republican nomination race and could weaken his standing. The Democratic side appears secondary, with little evidence yet of a major shift in the overall contest.

Articles

TAThe Arizona Republic7 days ago

Swing-district Democrats clash on attack ads, party 'insiders'

Amish Shah and Marlene Galán-Woods, the two Democratic frontrunners in a swing Arizona congressional district, sparred in a TV debate.

TAThe Arizona Republic14 days ago

Who is running for Arizona governor in 2026?

The race has focused competition between Reps. Andy Biggs and David Schweikert, who want the GOP nomination to challenge Democrat Katie Hobbs.

SLSalt Lake City Deseret News25 days ago

Here’s how Trump-endorsed candidates are faring in this purple state

From ‘America’s Sheriff’ to this former NFL kicker — these GOP candidates face an uphill battle

TAThe Arizona Republic12 days ago

Mark Lamb's Democratic rivals will debate on TV June 4

The high-octane Republican race in Arizona's 5th Congressional District has largely overshadowed the Democratic primary.

NNewsweek2 months ago

Republicans Risk Losing 34 Seats Where Gas Prices Are Rising

Democrats consider dozens of seats "in play" this November, and aim to leverage the domestic fallout from Trump's war in Iran.

NYNew York Post20 days ago

Sheriff who beat cartels before congress run caught in text scandal

Newly revealed texts show Arizona Sheriff Mark Lamb allegedly making a racist joke in 2016, suggesting black people are lazy.

ACArizona Capitol Times1 month ago

Challenges to primary election candidates oust 12, 10 survive

Primary ballots can now head to the printer after a series of rulings on nomination challenges officially finalized the list of candidates allowed to appear on the ballot.

Polls

Polling Average

80%60%40%20%0%

58.1%

M. Lamb

T. Grantham

D. Keenan

Date (Start - End)	Spread	Lamb	Grantham	Keenan
Polling Average	Lamb+55.8	58.1%	2.4%	2.2%
Victory InsightsDec 2 - 5	Lamb+62.0	63.5%	1.4%	1.5%
Victory InsightsDec 2 - 5	Lamb+62.9	69.2%	–	6.3%
NextGen PollingOct 10 - 12	Lamb+51.0	54.0%	3.0%	0.0%
NextGen PollingJun 4 - 4	Lamb+52.0	55.0%	3.0%	1.0%
NextGen PollingFeb 26 - 28	Lamb+47.0	49.0%	2.0%	–

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Fundraising

Total RaisedCash on Hand

Mar 31, 2026

$2M

$1.5M

$1M

$500K

J. Feely

D. Keenan

M. Lamb

T. Grantham

Candidate

Total Raised

Cash on Hand

Burn Rate (per month)

Last report

J. FeelyJay Feely

$1.80MContrib: $1.15M

$1.25MSpent: $543.4K

$36.2KLast period: $418.6K

APRIL QUARTERLY · Mar 31, 2026

D. KeenanDaniel Keenan

$1.58MContrib: $30.8K

$1.23MSpent: $343.6K

$22.9KLast period: $6.0K

APRIL QUARTERLY · Mar 31, 2026

M. LambMark Lamb

$759.7KContrib: $719.7K

$347.1KSpent: $412.6K

$27.5KLast period: $464.0K

APRIL QUARTERLY · Mar 31, 2026

T. GranthamTravis Grantham

$612.0KContrib: $362.0K

$74.8KSpent: $537.4K

$35.8KLast period: $18.5K

APRIL QUARTERLY · Mar 31, 2026

Source: FEC

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

Endorsements

Who will win the 2026 Arizona District 5 US House Republican Primary?

AZ-05 Republican nominee?

OddsCurrent Odds

Upcoming Events

Latest Insights

AZ-05 Republican nominee?

AZ-05 Republican nominee?

News

Swing-district Democrats clash on attack ads, party 'insiders'

Who is running for Arizona governor in 2026?

Here’s how Trump-endorsed candidates are faring in this purple state

Mark Lamb's Democratic rivals will debate on TV June 4

Republicans Risk Losing 34 Seats Where Gas Prices Are Rising

Sheriff who beat cartels before congress run caught in text scandal

Challenges to primary election candidates oust 12, 10 survive

Polls

Fundraising

Related races

Arizona Governor winner?

Arizona Republican Governor nominee?

AZ-04 Democratic nominee?

AZ-04 Republican nominee?

Upcoming Events

Latest Insights

AZ-05 Republican nominee?

AZ-05 Republican nominee?

News

Swing-district Democrats clash on attack ads, party 'insiders'

Who is running for Arizona governor in 2026?

Here’s how Trump-endorsed candidates are faring in this purple state

Mark Lamb's Democratic rivals will debate on TV June 4

Republicans Risk Losing 34 Seats Where Gas Prices Are Rising

Sheriff who beat cartels before congress run caught in text scandal

Challenges to primary election candidates oust 12, 10 survive

Polls

Fundraising

Related races

Arizona Governor winner?

Arizona Republican Governor nominee?

AZ-04 Democratic nominee?

AZ-04 Republican nominee?