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JUN 3, 2026
General Election
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Track how candidate odds have moved across common market windows.
source: Kalshi
Raman’s contract jumped from 14% to 14% after fresh polling kept her in a statistical tie with Bass and ahead of Pratt for the second runoff slot. That makes her a live repricing candidate in the race’s most tradable contest: who advances to November.
Raman’s contract rose from 17% to 17% as fresh reporting shows her within one point of Karen Bass and still in the battle for a top-two runoff slot. That makes her the clearest second-place repricing candidate in the race right now.
Karen Bass’s win odds fell from 69% a day ago to 59% as new reporting repeated the tight Bass-Raman-Pratt race and highlighted Newsom’s late endorsement of Bass. That keeps the market centered on whether Bass still holds the front-runner slot or whether the second-place battle is tightening enough to force a repricing.
Karen Bass is expected to lead the first round, but the runoff spot is still up for grabs. Recent polling puts Spencer Pratt and Nithya Raman close, and low turnout could help Pratt. Pratt has also stepped up attacks on Bass and Raman in the final days before the primary. Bass still looks strongest for first place, while the runoff race remains competitive. Pratt’s recent momentum may improve his odds, but the overall picture is still uncertain.
California heads toward an election Tuesday with its two marquee races defined by uncertainty, while a pair of outsider candidates looked to crack open the state’s durable Democratic hierarchy.
LOS ANGELES (AP) — California spiraled toward a primary election Tuesday with its two marquee races defined by uncertainty and with a pair of outsider candidates looking to crack open the state’s durable Democratic hierarchy.
SACRAMENTO, Calif. -- The end of California's chaotic governor's primary race was approaching Saturday as leading candidates rushed to deliver their closing arguments before voting ends Tuesday.
Reality shows are an escape with characters who can be larger than life. But some stars use the experience of fame as a stepping stone toward another challenge: running for political office.
California voters face a crowded ballot with 61 names during Tuesday's primary to replace outgoing Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom. The race has no clear front-runner and includes a mix of Democrats and...
McLaughlin said low turnout is creating uncertainty across major contests, including the California governor's race and the Los Angeles mayoral race.
If Xavier Becerra and Tom Steyer were to finish one-two in the primary, the Democrat-vs.-Democrat general election race would force both candidates to answer tough questions.
Mail voting began in early May, but just 15 percent of voters had returned their ballots as of Sunday.
A. MillerAdam MillerSource: FEC
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