Michigan Senate winner? (Person)
8hRogers’ win probability has moved up to 25% from 22% in the last hour while fresh reporting on Haley Stevens’ endorsement of him keeps the Michigan Senate race under intense late-cycle scrutiny.
22%3%
Saved Kalshi settlement results
These are market contract results, not election calls or vote totals. News, polls, prices and charts remain as captured.
Observation saved Nov 4, 2026, 11:35 AM UTC. No automatic updates.
Michigan Senate winner? (Person)
The selected contract has a verified final result.
Final: No
Settled Nov 4, 2026, 8:05 AM UTC
Republican
Mike Rogers
Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in Michigan
Michigan Senate winner? (Person)
$4.6M
NOV 7, 2026
General Election
Voters choose the office holder.
Saved odds
Prediction-market probability saved with this edition; no automatic updates.
Mike Rogers is trading at 22% to win the Michigan Senate winner? (Person) on prediction markets.
Candidate Overview
Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.
Current roleFormer U.S. Representative
PartyRepublican
Political ideologyConservative Republican
Age63 years old (Jun 2, 1963)
GenderMale
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LocationMichigan
BackgroundPolitician
EducationAdrian College (B.S.)
Notable personal detailsMichael J. Rogers is a Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate in Michigan. He served in the U.S. House of Representatives for Michigan's 8th congressional district from 2001 to 2015, including as chair of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence from 2011 to 2015. He previously served in the Michigan Senate and worked as an FBI special agent after serving in the U.S. Army. After leaving Congress, he worked as a national security commentator for CNN.
SourcesShowHide
en.wikipedia.orgrogersforsenate.comapnews.compolitico.comourmidland.comabcsemi.orgnypost.comtwitter.comx.commobile.twitter.commikerogersforcongress.comreddit.commichiganadvance.comnrsc.orgmichigandems.comrogers4congress.comamericanbridgepac.orgpolitifact.commichiganindependent.combridgemi.comsbam.orgontheissues.orgjewishinsider.comwashingtonexaminer.comfreep.comafpaction.comfacebook.comabcnews4.commichigandaily.comhaleyformi.comaxios.commichiganpublic.orgdemocracydocket.comnytimes.comwashingtonpost.comtheguardian.comthehill.comdetroitnews.comhistory.house.govfec.govdocquery.fec.govbioguide.congress.govclerk.house.govballotready.orgdeveloper.ballotpedia.orges.wikipedia.org
Political Positions
LiberalConservative
Economy & Taxes
Supports tax-cut and tax-advantaged measures for individuals and businesses, favors reducing federal spending and regulatory barriers, and has proposed expanding tax-advantaged 529-style accounts for first-time homebuyers. Has opposed Medicare drug price negotiation and backed Republican tax measures that critics say favor high-income earners. Advocates targeting federal spending and regulatory reductions to lower consumer costs and boost homeownership and business activity.
Healthcare
The candidate opposes the Affordable Care Act and has supported repealing or rolling back ACA provisions; he has backed proposals to introduce private-sector approaches to Medicare and supported policies that would cut or restructure Medicaid. His public materials emphasize market-based solutions, prescription drug cost reduction via private mechanisms, and support for reducing federal involvement in healthcare.
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Immigration & Border
The candidate supports enforcement-first border policies, including rebuilding physical barriers, reinstating the Remain in Mexico policy, restricting asylum by requiring applicants to start claims in their home country, and strengthening ICE/enforcement actions. He frames immigration as a national security and public-safety threat and endorses strong measures against cartels and criminal undocumented immigrants.
Abortion & Reproductive Rights
Historically he co-sponsored legislation to define life at conception and backed federal abortion restrictions, including a 20-week national ban and measures with few exceptions. During his recent campaign he has said he would not vote to overturn Michigan’s 2022 reproductive-rights amendment and has stated he would vote against a federal abortion ban, while also saying he is a pro‑life politician and would not walk away from that record.
Climate & Energy
Mike Rogers supports U.S. energy independence and an "all-of-the-above" energy approach that emphasizes American-made energy, reduced regulations on fossil-fuel development, and market-driven solutions. He has criticized federal EV mandates and opposed policies he says would force rapid electrification or harm Michigan manufacturing. His public statements prioritize energy reliability, affordability, and national-security concerns about dependence on foreign supply chains for batteries and critical minerals.
Public Safety & Guns
The candidate opposes many gun-safety restrictions and emphasizes mental-health and school-security solutions over new weapon bans; he highlights support for hunters/sportsmen and has received endorsements and favorable ratings from pro-gun groups.
Latest Candidate Updates
Recent changes in prediction-market odds, polling and campaign status.
Latest News
AINews Summary
Last updatedAug 14, 2026
Mike Rogers is in the news as the Republican nominee in Michigan’s open U.S. Senate race, where he will face Democrat Abdul El-Sayed in November. Recent polling shows Rogers narrowly ahead, including a Fox News survey that puts him up 51% to 47% among registered voters. He has also been highlighted as running unopposed in the GOP primary and as a candidate backed by Donald Trump, though some polling shows independents are wary of his ties to Trump.
en.wikipedia.org+45
Articles
NNewsweek3 months ago
Two Midwest Polls, One Major Warning for Democrats
Positive
WEWashington Examiner3 months ago
El Sayed snubs Sanders and AOC in first general election campaign ad
Positive
TGThe Gateway Pundit3 months ago
Hillary Clinton Admits Far-Left Candidates Give the GOP a ‘Very Effective Attack’ Against Democrats (VIDEO)
Neutral
UNUPI News3 months ago
Sayed, Rep. Haley Stevens face off in Michigan Senate primary
Positive
Latest Polls
Recent polling results and the candidate's current average in the race.
Glengariff Group
60%50%40%30%20%10%0%
45.8%
Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne
Campaign Fundraising
Latest report: Cycle 2026Campaign finance totals from the latest available reporting period.
Total raisedCash on hand
$13.2M
$9.9M
$6.6M
$3.3M
$0
2024
2026
LatestYear
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate
Cycle 2024
$13.2M
$254.7K
$13.0M
$541.4K
Cycle 2026
$10.9M
$4.5M
$6.7M
$351.6K
Source: FEC
Not available in this saved edition
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- Endorsements