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AUG 12, 2026Primary Election
Party selects its nominee.
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Track how candidate odds have moved across common market windows.
source: Kalshi
Larson’s market fell from about 67%-68% to 30% in the last day, following Luke Bronin’s convention win and a fresh wave of endorsements. That keeps the CT-01 Democratic primary highly tradable and suggests the market is repricing Larson as a clear underdog.
Larson’s market fell from about 67%-68% to 30% in the last day, following Luke Bronin’s convention win and a fresh wave of endorsements. That keeps the CT-01 Democratic primary highly tradable and suggests the market is repricing Larson as a clear underdog.
Luke Bronin’s Democratic nominee odds in CT-01 are now 79%, up from 53% in the prior read and back near the highest level seen in this sequence. CT Mirror’s latest coverage shows the May 11 convention upset is still reverberating into the August primary, keeping Bronin the clear market favorite.
Luke Bronin’s CT-01 Democratic nominee market surged from 43% to 53% in the latest hour, extending the post-convention repricing after his May 11 endorsement win over John Larson. That keeps the race in active two-way flux and makes Bronin the current market favorite again.
John Larson picked up a local endorsement in the Connecticut 1st District Democratic primary. Another piece says Luke Bronin has the party endorsement and is being pitched as the change candidate. Separately, a petition effort could add another candidate to the primary if certified. The endorsements suggest the race is still active, but the news is mixed and does not show a clear frontrunner shift. Ballot-access developments could add uncertainty if the primary field expands.
Larson is in position to play leading role in protecting benefits, which are at risk from this administration and complacent Republicans
Hartford attorney Ruth Fortune says she has collected enough signatures to force a four-way primary in the First Congressional district - thus changing the dynamic of the race.
WASHINGTON (AP) — The retirements of two of Iowa’s most prominent Republican officeholders, Gov. Kim Reynolds and U.S. Sen. Joni Ernst, have had ripple effects throughout Tuesday’s state primary, creating competitive nomination contests to replace them and a chain reaction of open seats down the ballot.
There comes a time to say thank you to our legendary leaders and trust the next generation to take the baton
" ... we set the bar so high for people to even be able to make their case and give voters a choice at the ballot box instead of simply deciding in closed rooms ..." Taubes said.
The retirements of Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds and U.S. Sen. Joni Ernst of Iowa have had ripple effects throughout Tuesday’s state primary, creating competitive nomination contests to replace them and a chain reaction of open seats down the ballot.
L. BroninLuke Bronin
J. LarsonJohn Larson
J. GilchrestJillian Gilchrest
R. FortuneRuth FortuneSource: FEC
New updates coming soon
We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.
