Discovery Insights Elections Candidates Calendar Watchlist

ActivePrimary ElectionRepublican

Who will win the 2026 Alabama District 1 US House Republican Primary first round?

Aug 12, 2026, 3:59am UTC, in 62 daysLast updated: Jun 11, 2026, 10:23 PM UTC

AL-01 Republican nominee?

$44.7K

AUG 12, 2026

Primary Election

Party selects its nominee.

Claim Offer$50TradeBonus

Deposit $20, get $50 on Polymarket

OddsCurrent Odds

Track how candidate odds have moved across common market windows.

Total volume

$44.7K

24h volume

J. Carl89%

R. Marques5%

A. Sidwell5%

Loading chart data...

source: Kalshi

Upcoming Events

June

TUE 16

Alabama 2026 primary runoff, if required

November

TUE 3

Alabama 2026 general election

Latest Insights

AL-01 Republican nominee?

24d

Carl’s nominee price is back at 87% after a run-up from 79% the prior day, reinforcing him as the clear market favorite going into Tuesday’s primary.

87%1%

AL-01 Republican nominee?

28d

Jerry Carl's odds are now 88%, topping the previous high of 69%.

88%19%

AL-01 Republican nominee?

29d

Jerry Carl's odds reached 79%, topping the previous high of 69% over the past 46 days.

79%10%

News

AINews Summary

Alabama’s congressional primary calendar has been pushed back to August 11 in several districts because of redistricting changes. Votes already cast in the affected districts may not count, and the district lines are still being sorted out. The uncertainty could reshape the Republican nomination race in AL-01. The delay increases uncertainty in the nomination market because the primary timing and district lines are still unsettled. That can make candidate-specific odds harder to read until the new schedule is finalized.

Articles

NNNBC News9 days ago

Several primaries remain uncalled and Ukraine attacks Putin’s hometown: Morning Rundown

Several key primary races, including California’s governor, remain uncalled, CBS News veteran correspondent Scott Pelley is sacked and Republicans get a boost with Alabama’s congressional map.

AAL.com9 days ago

Shomari Figures: Voting Rights Act is dead after Supreme Court’s ‘dangerous’ Alabama ruling

“This is a dangerous ruling that sets the State and this nation back decades.”

SPSt. Paul Pioneer Press24 days ago

What to watch in Tuesday’s primaries as Trump’s endorsement is put to the test

By JONATHAN J. COOPER and STEVE PEOPLES WASHINGTON (AP) — Is there a future in politics for Republicans who cross President Donald Trump? The signs this year suggest no, and Trump has convinced his voters to defeat his adversaries again and again. The next test of the president’s power to extract retribution is on Tuesday, […]

SRSanta Rosa Press Democrat22 days ago

Takeaways from Tuesday’s primaries: Massie’s loss leaves no doubt about Trump’s power over the GOP

Here are takeaways from primaries in Alabama, Georgia, Idaho, Kentucky, Oregon and Pennsylvania.

TAThe Atlanta Journal-Constitution23 days ago

Takeaways from Tuesday's primaries: Massie's loss leaves no doubt about Trump's power over the GOP

President Donald Trump has scored another win against a Republican rival, purging Rep. Thomas Massie in Kentucky’s primary and knocking out one of his most outspoken critics on Capitol Hill. Massie has been a particularly difficult thorn in Trump’s side. He pushed for the release of the Jeffrey Epstein files, opposed the war with Iran and voted against Trump’s signature tax legislation last year. He lost Tuesday to Trump-backed challenger Ed Gallrein following the most expensive U.S. House primary in history. He had tried to convince Republicans that they could support both himself and Trump at the same time, a proposition that has been tried unsuccessfully in other races around the country.

NNewsmax1 month ago

Trump Endorses Barry Moore in Alabama Senate Race

Calling the congressman a totally reliable MAGA Warrior and praising him as one of his all time favorites, President Donald Trump on Thursday endorsed Rep. Barry Moore in Alabama's U.S. Senate race.

SSSpokane Spokesman-Review1 month ago

Alabama governor calls for special session on redistricting

WASHINGTON — Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey called for the state’s legislature to meet in special session next week to revisit their congressional map, the latest fallout from a Supreme Court ruling this week limiting the Voting Rights Act. Ivey, a Republican, on Friday said she was hopeful the state would “receive a favorable outcome” from the Supreme Court, which could weigh in on legal challenges to ...

WCWDIV ClickOnDetroit25 days ago

AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Alabama's primaries

Alabama voters will choose nominees for U.S. Senate, governor and a full slate of state and local offices.

AAL.com23 days ago

Voter turnout in Alabama continues to drop but Democratic counties saw surge

Alabama’s primary saw turnout slip again, driven largely by steep declines in several red counties, while many voters and candidates blamed a surge of negative political advertising.

Polls

Polling Average

40%30%20%10%0%

28.0%

13.5%

5.6%

J. Carl

R. Marques

J. McKee

A. Sidwell

J. Richardson

J. Mills

Date (Start - End)	Spread	Carl	Marques	McKee	Sidwell	Richardson	Mills
Polling Average	Carl+14.5	28.0%	13.5%	5.6%	2.5%	0.5%	0.5%
PI PollingApr 20 - 22	Marques+2.0	20.0%	22.0%	6.0%	4.0%	1.0%	0.0%
PI PollingMar 31 - Apr 2	Carl+4.0	23.0%	19.0%	–	–	–	–
The Alabama PollMar 5 - 8	Carl+9.0	28.0%	19.0%	9.0%	–	–	–
AM Research GroupJan 31 - Feb 2	Carl+36.0	43.0%	7.0%	2.0%	1.0%	0.0%	1.0%
The Alabama PollJan 23 - 23	Carl+16.0	25.2%	9.2%	8.8%	–	–	–
CygnalAug 21 - 22	Carl+24.0	29.0%	5.0%	2.0%	–	–	–

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Fundraising

Total RaisedCash on Hand

Apr 29, 2026

$2M

$1.5M

$1M

$500K

R. Marques

J. Carl

J. McKee

A. Sidwell

J. Richardson

Candidate

Total Raised

Cash on Hand

Burn Rate (per month)

Last report

R. MarquesRhett Marques

$1.13MContrib: $1.13M

$469.3KSpent: $663.0K

$41.4KLast period: $54.1K

PRE-PRIMARY · Apr 29, 2026

J. CarlJerry Carl

$757.0KContrib: $675.0K

$269.6KSpent: $556.7K

$34.8KLast period: $31.7K

PRE-PRIMARY · Apr 29, 2026

J. McKeeJoshua McKee

$481.8KContrib: $256.5K

$111.3KSpent: $370.5K

$23.2KLast period: $19.3K

PRE-PRIMARY · Apr 29, 2026

A. SidwellAustin Sidwell

$175.5KContrib: $51.4K

$19.6KSpent: $155.8K

$9.7KLast period: $12.5K

PRE-PRIMARY · Apr 29, 2026

J. RichardsonJames Richardson

$6.9KContrib: $6.9K

$10Spent: $6.9K

$432Last period: $0

PRE-PRIMARY · Apr 29, 2026

Source: FEC

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

Endorsements

Who will win the 2026 Alabama District 1 US House Republican Primary first round?

AL-01 Republican nominee?

OddsCurrent Odds

Upcoming Events

Latest Insights

AL-01 Republican nominee?

AL-01 Republican nominee?

AL-01 Republican nominee?

News

Several primaries remain uncalled and Ukraine attacks Putin’s hometown: Morning Rundown

Shomari Figures: Voting Rights Act is dead after Supreme Court’s ‘dangerous’ Alabama ruling

What to watch in Tuesday’s primaries as Trump’s endorsement is put to the test

Takeaways from Tuesday’s primaries: Massie’s loss leaves no doubt about Trump’s power over the GOP

Takeaways from Tuesday's primaries: Massie's loss leaves no doubt about Trump's power over the GOP

Trump Endorses Barry Moore in Alabama Senate Race

Alabama governor calls for special session on redistricting

AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Alabama's primaries

Voter turnout in Alabama continues to drop but Democratic counties saw surge

Polls

Fundraising

Related races

Alabama Republican Senate nominee?

Alabama Democratic Senate nominee?

AL-05 Democratic nominee?

AL-02 House winner?

Upcoming Events

Latest Insights

AL-01 Republican nominee?

AL-01 Republican nominee?

AL-01 Republican nominee?

News

Several primaries remain uncalled and Ukraine attacks Putin’s hometown: Morning Rundown

Shomari Figures: Voting Rights Act is dead after Supreme Court’s ‘dangerous’ Alabama ruling

What to watch in Tuesday’s primaries as Trump’s endorsement is put to the test

Takeaways from Tuesday’s primaries: Massie’s loss leaves no doubt about Trump’s power over the GOP

Takeaways from Tuesday's primaries: Massie's loss leaves no doubt about Trump's power over the GOP

Trump Endorses Barry Moore in Alabama Senate Race

Alabama governor calls for special session on redistricting

AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Alabama's primaries

Voter turnout in Alabama continues to drop but Democratic counties saw surge

Polls

Fundraising

Related races

Alabama Republican Senate nominee?

Alabama Democratic Senate nominee?

AL-05 Democratic nominee?

AL-02 House winner?