$47.1K
MAY 16, 2026Primary Election
Party selects its nominee.
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Prediction market probabilities from Kalshi, updated as market prices change. Last updated Sep 8, 2026, 10:53 AM UTC.
source: Kalshi
Compare the candidates' live odds and fundraising. Updated .
| Candidate | Live odds | Funds raised |
|---|---|---|
| 12% | $20.98M | |
| 4% | — | |
| 4% | $49.8K |
Important voting dates, registration deadlines and prediction market closing times.
Recent reporting and announcements directly related to this race and its candidates.
Louisiana has a new congressional map after the Supreme Court struck down the old one, and the revised plan is expected to favor Republicans. Qualifying has also closed, so the candidate field is now set for the November election. Further legal challenges could still affect the map. The new map likely improves the Republican environment overall, but it does not by itself settle this nomination market. With qualifying closed, uncertainty should narrow around the final GOP field.
The contest for Kentucky's 4th Congressional District will go down as the most expensive primary race in US history, with more than $32 million spent on political ads, according to the firm AdImpact.
Former Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein has won the Republican primary in Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District over Rep. Thomas Massie.
Trump touted a 37-0 record in Tuesday's GOP primaries, including Ed Gallrein's ouster of Rep. Thomas Massie in Kentucky's closely watched congressional race.
By JONATHAN J. COOPER and STEVE PEOPLES WASHINGTON (AP) — Is there a future in politics for Republicans who cross President Donald Trump? The signs this year suggest no, and Trump has convinced his voters to defeat his adversaries again and again. The next test of the president’s power to extract retribution is on Tuesday, […]
President Donald Trump is trying to oust one of his own party’s most independent voices: Kentucky Congressman Thomas Massie.
President Donald Trump and allies target Sen. Bill Cassidy and Rep. Thomas Massie in upcoming GOP primaries after Trump-backed challengers won five Indiana state Senate races.
So far, his chosen candidates in several May primaries are struggling to dominate their fields.
Qualifying period opens Wednesday for U.S. House, local races across Capital Region
Qualifying period opens Wednesday for U.S. House, local races across Capital Region
U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson spoke Thursday about Louisiana's new congressional map that Gov. Jeff Landry ultimately approved on Friday after the Supreme Court's Louisiana v. Callais decision.
Campaign finance totals for the 2026 cycle, including money raised, spent and cash on hand.
M. JohnsonMike Johnson
M. NicholsMike NicholsSource: FEC
New updates coming soon
We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.
