$16.7K
AUG 5, 2026Primary Election
Party selects its nominee.
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Track how candidate odds have moved across common market windows.
source: Kalshi
Bush’s nominee price is still sitting around 38% after a multi-day slide, while new reporting confirms the Bush-Bell rematch is officially filed and in motion ahead of the August 4 primary. That keeps Bell favored and makes Bush’s path look harder for traders pricing the Democratic nomination.
The newest coverage is about broader Democratic primary battles and how they may shape the party’s 2026 strategy. None of the summaries report a Missouri 1st District nomination development. The race-specific outlook appears unchanged from these reports. No clear market-moving update for this Missouri nomination race. The latest summaries leave the odds and uncertainty largely unchanged.
How Utah’s redistricting fight echoes a nationwide battle over congressional representation
Progressives are fired up, but some districts are still backing centrist Democrats in primaries ahead of the November midterms.
Seven states have adopted new maps since last summer, as the simmering redistricting war between Democrats and Republicans continues.
Democrats consider dozens of seats "in play" this November, and aim to leverage the domestic fallout from Trump's war in Iran.
Rather than waning, a national redistricting battle that began 10 months ago has intensified — inflamed by a recent U.S. Supreme Court ruling that weakened the federal Voting Rights Act.
Some members say redistricting is taking the U.S. backwards.
Alabama will hold a special primary election for four of its seven congressional districts, after the U.S. Supreme Court cleared the way for Alabama to use a map that had been blocked by the courts.
President Donald Trump is waging a retribution campaign against some fellow Republicans in the primary in Indiana.
The last time former Rep. and South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford went up against President Donald Trump, it didn't end well for him.
Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne
W. BellWesley BellC. BushCori BushSource: FEC
New updates coming soon
We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.
