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AUG 5, 2026Primary Election
Party selects its nominee.
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Track how candidate odds have moved across common market windows.
source: Kalshi
Fresh reporting shows Missouri’s new congressional map is still tied up in court and referendum litigation, with a decision on the petition not due until Aug. 4. That keeps Ann Wagner’s Republican nomination market sensitive to any change in how the district is ultimately administered ahead of the primary.
Wagner’s Republican-nomination price fell from 97% yesterday to 91% today, even as her market remains heavily favored. That makes the market more sensitive to any fresh news on Missouri’s still-unsettled congressional map and primary field ahead of the August 4 primary.
A. WagnerAnn WagnerSource: FEC
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